405 W Live Oak St

Moulton, TX 77975

$95,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 992 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $930/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $58/mo
• Annual: $692/yr
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.60%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($692/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (2.1% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#78 in TX, #2,750 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Moulton ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #342 of 1,141 in TX (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Lavaca County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lavaca County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.