405 W Live Oak St · Moulton, TX 77975

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1974 0.25 ac lot $96/sqft · at area comps Est $91k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your next great project! This charming two-bedroom, one-bath home sits on a spacious 0.25-acre corner lot shaded by beautiful mature trees. A cute front porch with white picket fence greets you warmly, while the fenced backyard offers two storage buildings, a workshop/shed, and convenient dual access from separate driveways. With small-town Moulton charm and serious renovation potential, this as-is gem is calling all investors and visionaries. Don't miss out - reach out today!

Key facts

• Dual access
• Workshop shed
• Front porch

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE BUILDINGS
• WORKSHOP SHED
• DUAL ACCESS
• FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($692/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#78 in TX, #2,750 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Moulton ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #342 of 1,141 in TX (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Lavaca County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Lavaca County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.60%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,518
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 4.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 S Hackberry St	0.15mi	2/1.0	966 (-3%)	13mo	$179,000	$185	78
605 S Hackberry	0.67mi	2/1.0	992 (0%)	14mo	$80,000	$81	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $25,680
• Equity at exit: $53,925

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $74,487
• Equity at exit: $93,142

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77975

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $930 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,669/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $857

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-04-16
    listed $95,000 Active 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Welcome to your next great project! This charming two-bedroom, one-bath home sits on a spacious 0.25-acre corner lot shaded by beautiful mature trees. A cute front porch with white picket fence greets you warmly, while the fenced backyard offers two storage buildings, a workshop/shed, and convenient dual access from separate driveways. With small-town Moulton charm and serious renovation potential, this as-is gem is calling all investors and visionaries. Don't miss out - reach out today!

17. 2008-11-19
    soldstatus
18. 2004-11-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,669 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 4.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,669
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$893
• − Management: −$893
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$857
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$206
• After-tax cash flow: $898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moulton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831560
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,611
• Composite: 45.07/100
• National rank: #5838
• State rank: #342 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Moulton

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #2750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moulton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,782

Population outlook (Lavaca County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,154 people
• By 2030: 21,961 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 23,800 · +12.5%
• By 2050: 25,908 · +22.5%
• By 2075: 32,118 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 35,273 · +66.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Lavaca

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.1) · D 11.8% · R 87.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: -53.8pp · 2024: -76.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.1 2020: R+73.3 2016: R+71.5 2012: R+64.8 2008: R+53.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.02%
• Current HPI: 189.2196
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $95,000 CTXMLS
• 2008-11-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-11-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,669 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.