133 Highland Dr

Hayfork, CA 96041

$85,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $919/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$278
• Tax + insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $366/mo
• Annual: $4,395/yr
• Cap rate: 14.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.59%
• DSCR: 2.32
• 1% rule: 1.73%
• Cash to close: $14,851

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($919 rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $367 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#677 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mountain Valley Unified (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #788 of 1,400 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hayfork Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #410 of 1,571 statewide, top 28%, 238 students, 81% FRL); Hayfork High (math 50% / reading 90%, grade B+, #112 of 1,170 statewide, top 10%, 86 students, 87% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Mountain Valley Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trinity County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $85k implies a 254% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 3.0% in Hayfork — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.