133 Highland Dr · Hayfork, CA 96041

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 2023 0.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this approximately 800 square foot home currently under construction and ready for your finishing touches. Offering the chance to customize the interior to your own style and needs, this property is ideal for investors, contractors, or buyers looking to create a personalized living space. The property features large front and back yards with plenty of room for gardening, outdoor entertaining, pets, or additional improvements. Two outbuildings provide valuable extra space for storage, workshops, hobbies, or equipment. Conveniently located with easy access to nearby amenities and services, the property is connected to city water, sewer, and power, adding practicality a

Key facts

• Connected to power
• Outbuildings
• Connected to sewer

Tags

• CUSTOMIZE THE INTERIOR
• LARGE FRONT AND BACK YARDS
• OUTBUILDINGS
• CONNECTED TO CITY WATER
• CONNECTED TO SEWER
• CONNECTED TO POWER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Under construction status
• Construction: Under construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Property has a view; Under construction

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove
• Interior features: Wood stove heating; Washer and dryer included; Total of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. The $85,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $53,040.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($919 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 3.0% in Hayfork — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#677 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mountain Valley Unified (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #788 of 1,400 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hayfork Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #410 of 1,571 statewide, top 28%, 238 students, 81% FRL); Hayfork High (math 50% / reading 90%, grade B+, #112 of 1,170 statewide, top 10%, 86 students, 87% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Mountain Valley Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $367 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trinity County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $85k implies a 254% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.59%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $53,040
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7021 Highway 3	0.59mi	1/1.5 (-1)	800 (-2%)	1mo	$52,000	$65	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $14,741
• Equity at exit: $7,908

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $42,912
• Equity at exit: $4,586

Cash invested: $14,851 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96041

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $919 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$278
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $711/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $455

Max offer price $53,040

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,260
• Closing costs: $1,591
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on marketlisting id $85,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-16
    listed $99,000 Active
18. 2017-04-18
    listed $29,000
19. 2006-04-07
    soldstatus $24,000
20. 2006-03-14
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $711 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $711 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 46 unhealthy d/yr today · 47 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,971
• − Property taxes: −$711
• − Insurance: −$265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$882
• − Management: −$882
• − Depreciation: −$1,543
• Taxable income: $3,770
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$905
• After-tax cash flow: $3,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mountain Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600018
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,254
• Composite: 35.23/100
• National rank: #9851
• State rank: #788 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hayfork

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #677
• US rank: #20786

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayfork, CA
• City population: 3,413
• Population (ZIP): 3,413

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,337 people
• By 2030: 10,349 · -8.7%
• By 2040: 8,518 · -24.9%
• By 2050: 7,084 · -37.5%
• By 2075: 4,693 · -58.6%
• By 2100: 2,894 · -74.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Asian 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 9% Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 43.4% · R 52.8% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.0pp toward R · 2008: 4.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+5.4 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+1.1 2008: D+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.83%
• Current HPI: 117.7109
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+890.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $99,000 Trinity AOR
• 2017-04-18 Listed $29,000 SAOR
• 2006-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 2006-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $711 · +53.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.