303 Amersham Dr

Bethel Manor, VA 23693

$209,000C-

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · Built 1989 · Other · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,076/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$348
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $196/mo
• Annual: $2,349/yr
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.01%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $209k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (0.7% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $208k (0.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#474 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• York County Public School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #3 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Tabb Elementary (math 86% / reading 91%, grade A+, #27 of 1,108 statewide, top 3%, 644 students, 40% FRL); Tabb Middle (math 84% / reading 88%, grade A+, #9 of 342 statewide, top 2%, 903 students, 33% FRL); Tabb High (math 75% / reading 93%, grade A, #28 of 319 statewide, top 9%, 1,123 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 15% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 187 units permitted in York County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• York County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.0% in Bethel Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.