303 Amersham Dr · Bethel Manor, VA 23693

$209,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · Other · 12 Days on market

Built 1989 Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 Stories townhouse, 1272 Sq. ft, 2 Master Bedrooms, 2.5 Baths, Living Room with two built-In bookshelves and wood burning fireplace, Kitchen with refrigerator, electric stove, dishwasher, garbage disposal, microwave, breakfast bar, pantry, dining area, large laundry room with washer and dryer hookups, utility/coat closet, 2 large master bedrooms, MB #1 bathroom with dual sinks and large, Jetted soaking tub. New vinyl flooring, Ceiling fans, New water heater, Two years old AC, Private Patio/Court Yard, Assigned/Reserved parking with visitor parking. Served by the York County Public Schools.

Key facts

• Jetted soaking tub
• Large laundry room
• Utility coat closet

Tags

• BUILT IN BOOKSHELVES
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• UTILITY COAT CLOSET
• JETTED SOAKING TUB

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1989
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,272
• Exterior features: Located in the Yorkshire Downs subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $209k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (0.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.0% in Bethel Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#474 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• York County Public School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #3 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Tabb Elementary (math 86% / reading 91%, grade A+, #27 of 1,108 statewide, top 3%, 644 students, 40% FRL); Tabb Middle (math 84% / reading 88%, grade A+, #9 of 342 statewide, top 2%, 903 students, 33% FRL); Tabb High (math 75% / reading 93%, grade A, #28 of 319 statewide, top 9%, 1,123 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 15% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 187 units permitted in York County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• York County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,609 (0.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.01%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-14,957
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $31,123
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23693

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,076 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$261 /mo · $3,135/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,828

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $340	-5% $268	+0% $196	+5% $124	+10% $51
Rent	-10% $32	-5% $114	+0% $196	+5% $278	+10% $360
Rate	-1.0pp $301	-0.5pp $249	base $196	+0.5pp $142	+1.0pp $87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 Sheffield Ln Yorktown, VA	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,300	$1.39	9d	1	0.09mi
304 Arabian Cir Yorktown, VA	3.0	2.5	1300	$2,250	$1.73	26d	1	0.11mi
101 Little Bay Ave Yorktown, VA	2.0	2.0	975	$1,593	$1.63	0d	1	0.19mi
122 Pinewood Cres Yorktown, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	975	$1,789	$1.83	0d	4	0.38mi
3100 Hampton Hwy Yorktown, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	977	$2,002	$2.05	0d	7	0.39mi
100 Post Oak Rd Yorktown, VA	3.0	2.5	1561	$2,175	$1.39	18d	1	0.48mi
100 Post Oak Rd Yorktown, VA	3.0	2.5	1561	$2,175	$1.39	17d	1	0.48mi
100 White Cedar Ln Yorktown, VA	3.0	3.0	1699	$2,425	$1.43	9d	1	0.64mi
101 Saint Clair Cir Yorktown, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1205	$1,656	$1.37	0d	20	1.03mi
6 Old Pond Ct Hampton, VA	3.0	2.5	1494	$2,695	$1.80	19d	1	1.18mi
130 Semple Farm Rd #00136302 Hampton, VA	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,699	$1.60	9d	1	1.22mi
101 Madison Chase #101 Hampton, VA	1.0	1.5	1020	$1,550	$1.52	46d	1	1.29mi
2 Tradewinds Quay Hampton, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$1,768	$1.72	0d	15	1.35mi
122 Sterling Ct Yorktown, VA	3.0	2.5	1289	$2,100	$1.63	0d	1	1.47mi
104 Pocosin Path Poquoson, VA	3.0	3.5	1765	$2,495	$1.41	46d	1	1.47mi
110 Foundry Ct Yorktown, VA	2.0	2.5	1278	$1,700	$1.33	17d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 597-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $209,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 62% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$3,135
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,993
• − Management: −$1,993
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$1,040
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$250
• After-tax cash flow: $2,599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-story townhouse is in good condition with recent updates, including new vinyl flooring and a new water heater. It offers a good balance of features and is ready for a new owner or tenant.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Energy-efficient fans reduce utility costs and improve comfort
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase home value and attract tech-savvy buyers/renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Energy-efficient fans reduce utility costs and improve comfort ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase home value and attract tech-savvy buyers/renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: York County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104150
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 87% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,985
• Composite: 72.34/100
• National rank: #202
• State rank: #3 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bethel Manor

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #474
• US rank: #20477

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment C Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: York County · 42,477 people
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 23,176
• Household income: $124,433
• Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 629.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,000 people
• By 2030: 78,122 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 83,329 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 87,381 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 99,308 · +32.4%
• By 2100: 101,751 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 12% Asian 12% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 46.3% · R 52.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.9pp toward D · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.14%
• Current HPI: 218.7889
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $209,000 FSBO.com