1986 Admiral

Aransas Pass, TX 78336

$315,000C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,666 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,105/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$695
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$862
• Net cashflow: $896/mo
• Annual: $10,749/yr
• Cap rate: 9.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.19%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $896 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $315k).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $277k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Aransas Pass ISD (town): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #597 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: H T Faulk El (483 students, 74% FRL); A C Blunt Middle (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 387 students, 64% FRL); Aransas Pass H S (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 457 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $88k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.6% in Aransas Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.