1986 Admiral · Aransas Pass, TX 78336

$315,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,666 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 2022 6,118 sqft lot $189/sqft · 14% above area Est $274k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful coastal retreat offering 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms in a thoughtfully designed open-concept floor plan. The split-bedroom layout provides privacy, while the heart of the home features a stunning kitchen with a large island, ample cabinetry, and stylish accent details that elevate the space. The generous primary suite is a true sanctuary, complete with a private ensuite bathroom and comfortable proportions. Additional designer touches throughout add warmth and character, making this home truly move-in ready. Ideally located near some of the area’s best fishing spots, local eateries, and coastal attractions, this property perfectly blends comfort, style, and location—perfect for full-time living, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity.

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Ample cabinetry
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• STUNNING KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $896 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $315k).
• Recommended offer: $277k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.6% in Aransas Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Aransas Pass ISD (town): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #597 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: H T Faulk El (483 students, 74% FRL); A C Blunt Middle (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 387 students, 64% FRL); Aransas Pass H S (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 457 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $88k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.19%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,505
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: 15.17%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
704 Starboard	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-1%)	18mo	$355,000	$215	78
1003 W Rhodes Ave	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,608 (-4%)	3mo	$484,500	$301	74
2058 Admiral	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,572 (-6%)	17mo	$319,000	$203	72
1962 Admiral Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,525 (-8%)	18mo	$289,900	$190	65
1384 Morgan	0.35mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,586 (-5%)	8mo	$379,900	$240	60
1838 S Saunders St	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,482 (-11%)	22mo	$325,000	$219	46
1689 Mooney Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-14%)	10mo	$315,000	$220	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $6,175
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $79,517
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78336

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,105 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$564 /mo · $6,768/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$862
• Net cashflow: $896

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,971

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,074	-5% $985	+0% $896	+5% $807	+10% $717
Rent	-10% $571	-5% $734	+0% $896	+5% $1,058	+10% $1,220
Rate	-1.0pp $1,054	-0.5pp $976	base $896	+0.5pp $814	+1.0pp $731

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1131 S 8th St Unit 1268400P Aransas Pass, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$4,105	$3.21	45d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $315,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $315,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $315,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,000 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 127 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 126 DOM
17. 2026-01-24
    listed $315,000 Active 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful coastal retreat offering 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms in a thoughtfully designed open-concept floor plan. The split-bedroom layout provides privacy, while the heart of the home features a stunning kitchen with a large island, ample cabinetry, and stylish accent details that elevate the space. The generous primary suite is a true sanctuary, complete with a private ensuite bathroom and comfortable proportions. Additional designer touches throughout add warmth and character, making this home truly move-in ready. Ideally located near some of the area’s best fishing spots, local eateries, and coastal attractions, this property perfectly blends comfort, style, and location—perfect for full-time living, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity.

18. 2025-10-24
    price $329,900
19. 2025-09-27
    listed $340,000 Active
20. 2025-07-13
    historical $2,600
21. 2025-06-12
    listed $2,600
22. 2022-08-03
    historical
23. 2022-08-02
    soldstatus Closed
24. 2022-06-21
    status Pending
25. 2022-06-18
    price $287,900
26. 2022-06-14
    price $279,900
27. 2022-06-14
    status Active
28. 2022-04-13
    status Pending
29. 2022-02-23
    price $286,500
30. 2022-01-06
    soldstatus
31. 2021-12-17
    listed $269,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,768 · $564/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,768 · $564/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$6,768
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,941
• − Management: −$3,941
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable income: $6,226
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,494
• After-tax cash flow: $9,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aransas Pass ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808580
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,869
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7191
• State rank: #597 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aransas Pass

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #5980

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aransas Pass, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,146

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 21% Asian 2% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.56%
• Current HPI: 187.8443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+16.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-24 Listed $315,000 CBMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $329,900 CBMLS
• 2025-09-27 Listed $340,000 CBMLS
• 2025-07-13 Rental Removed $2,600 Avail
• 2025-06-12 Listed for Rent $2,600 Avail
• 2022-08-03 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2022-08-02 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2022-06-21 Pending — CBMLS
• 2022-06-18 Price Changed $287,900 CBMLS
• 2022-06-14 Price Changed $279,900 CBMLS
• 2022-06-14 Relisted — CBMLS
• 2022-04-13 Pending — CBMLS
• 2022-02-23 Price Changed $286,500 CBMLS
• 2022-01-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-12-17 Listed $269,900 CBMLS

Property tax history

+55.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,768 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.