14134 Brownsville St

Cloverleaf, TX 77015

$159,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,440/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$288
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $15/mo
• Annual: $184/yr
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($184/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (9.4% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $144k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#886 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Galena Park ISD (suburban): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #578 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: North Shore El (math 32% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 951 students, 89% FRL); North Shore Middle (math 35% / reading 35%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 1,260 students, 87% FRL); North Shore Senior High (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 4,569 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Cloverleaf — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.