14134 Brownsville St · Cloverleaf, TX 77015

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1995 10,497 sqft lot Est $158k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 Bedroom 2 bath Mobile Home with Large Carport and Workshop/Shed! Located on 2 Lots! Possibly move another Mobile Home on second lot! Completely Fenced! Electric Driveway Gate! Large Covered Patio! Handicap Accessible! Great opportunity for family residence or rent properties!

Key facts

• Workshop shed
• Completely fenced
• 2 lots

Tags

• LARGE CARPORT
• WORKSHOP SHED
• COMPLETELY FENCED
• ELECTRIC DRIVEWAY GATE
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• 2 LOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($184/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Cloverleaf — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#886 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Galena Park ISD (suburban): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #578 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: North Shore El (math 32% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 951 students, 89% FRL); North Shore Middle (math 35% / reading 35%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 1,260 students, 87% FRL); North Shore Senior High (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 4,569 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,991 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,496
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14134 Brownsville St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	0mo	$159,000	$127	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-28,973
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-40,135
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77015

• Home prices YoY: -10.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,440 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,666/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,421

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $60	+0% $15	+5% $-30	+10% $-75
Rent	-10% $-98	-5% $-42	+0% $15	+5% $72	+10% $129
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $56	base $15	+0.5pp $-26	+1.0pp $-68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13925 Alderson St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$1,234	$1.76	0d	1	0.53mi
353 Audrey Ln Unit 383 Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1224	$1,400	$1.14	44d	1	0.95mi
353 Audrey Ln Unit 365 1/2 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,375	$1.72	44d	1	0.95mi
13433 Topeka St Unit 1510879P Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1420	$1,760	$1.24	0d	1	0.97mi
316 White Cedar St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1158	$1,496	$1.29	44d	1	1.18mi
316 White Cedar St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1158	$1,496	$1.29	20d	1	1.18mi
316 White Cedar St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1028	$1,306	$1.27	25d	1	1.18mi
250 Uvalde Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,339	$1.47	3d	26	1.27mi
13025 Joliet St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,098	$2.10	11d	1	1.34mi
13161 Woodforest Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	965	$1,058	$1.10	44d	1	1.35mi
13464 Castilian Dr #2 Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,195	$0.83	13d	1	1.35mi
13726 Rampchester Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1492	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-10
   listed $159,000 Active
4. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,666 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$244/yr (+$20/mo · 9.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,666
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,382
• − Management: −$1,382
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$2,479
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$595
• After-tax cash flow: $779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galena Park ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820250
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,158
• Composite: 27.62/100
• National rank: #6927
• State rank: #578 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cloverleaf

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #886
• US rank: #15938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cloverleaf, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,415
• Household income: $57,753
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1816.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 54% Black 14% White 6% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60% Cuban 2%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 31% English-only · Spanish 68% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1821
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,666 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.