105 Melrose Ave

Natchez, MS 39120

$99,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 742 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Pending · 174 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,149/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $268/mo
• Annual: $3,218/yr
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.61%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mc Laurin Elementary School (math 9% / reading 26%, grade F, #255 of 375 statewide, top 68%, 591 students, 100% FRL); Morgantown Middle (math 7% / reading 12%); Natchez High School (math 5% / reading 12%, grade F, #183 of 197 statewide, top 93%, 665 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $99k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.4% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.