105 Melrose Ave · Natchez, MS 39120

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 742 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 174 Days on market

Built 2016 7,840 sqft lot $133/sqft · 14% above area Est $93k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COMPLETLEY RENOVATED 2 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME CENTRALLY LOCATED IN DOWNTOWN NATCHEZ CLOSE TO SHOPPING, CONVENIENCE STORES, HISTORIC NATCHEZ BLUFFS, AND MORE! SPACIUOS BACKYARD FOR ENTERTAINING OR RELAXING! THIS HOME BOASTS BEAUTIFUL FAUX WOOD CERAMIC TILE THROUGHOUT THE SPACIUOS ROOMS. THE KITCHEN HAS PLENTY OF COUNTER SPACE AND WOODEN CABINETRY FOR STORAGE. BRAND NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES TO INCLUDE OVEN AND REFRIGERATOR. NEW LIGHT FIXTURES TO INCLUDE CEILING FANS AND LED RECESSED LIGHTING! NEW AC UNIT! CALL NOW FOR YOUR PRIVATE SHOWING!

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Centrally located
• Wooden cabinetry

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• CENTRALLY LOCATED
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• FAUX WOOD CERAMIC TILE
• PLENTY OF COUNTER SPACE
• WOODEN CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.4% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mc Laurin Elementary School (math 9% / reading 26%, grade F, #255 of 375 statewide, top 68%, 591 students, 100% FRL); Morgantown Middle (math 7% / reading 12%); Natchez High School (math 5% / reading 12%, grade F, #183 of 197 statewide, top 93%, 665 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $99k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.61%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,905
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: 6.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1828 Wheeler Dr	0.12mi	2/1.0	816 (+10%)	15mo	$87,500	$107	66
5 Junkin St	0.45mi	2/1.0	844 (+14%)	7mo	$25,000	$30	50
3 Ouachita St	0.68mi	2/1.0	810 (+9%)	8mo	$19,000	$23	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,028
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $22,847
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,149 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $947/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $809

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $324	-5% $296	+0% $268	+5% $240	+10% $212
Rent	-10% $177	-5% $223	+0% $268	+5% $314	+10% $359
Rate	-1.0pp $318	-0.5pp $293	base $268	+0.5pp $243	+1.0pp $216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $99,000 Pending 174 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,000 Active 173 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,000 Active 172 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,000 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,000 Active 170 DOM
6. 2026-04-03
   price $99,000 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   COMPLETLEY RENOVATED 2 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME CENTRALLY LOCATED IN DOWNTOWN NATCHEZ CLOSE TO SHOPPING, CONVENIENCE STORES, HISTORIC NATCHEZ BLUFFS, AND MORE! SPACIUOS BACKYARD FOR ENTERTAINING OR RELAXING! THIS HOME BOASTS BEAUTIFUL FAUX WOOD CERAMIC TILE THROUGHOUT THE SPACIUOS ROOMS. THE KITCHEN HAS PLENTY OF COUNTER SPACE AND WOODEN CABINETRY FOR STORAGE. BRAND NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES TO INCLUDE OVEN AND REFRIGERATOR. NEW LIGHT FIXTURES TO INCLUDE CEILING FANS AND LED RECESSED LIGHTING! NEW AC UNIT! CALL NOW FOR YOUR PRIVATE SHOWING!

7. 2025-12-12
   listed $115,000 Active 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   COMPLETLEY RENOVATED 2 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME CENTRALLY LOCATED IN DOWNTOWN NATCHEZ CLOSE TO SHOPPING, CONVENIENCE STORES, HISTORIC NATCHEZ BLUFFS, AND MORE! SPACIUOS BACKYARD FOR ENTERTAINING OR RELAXING! THIS HOME BOASTS BEAUTIFUL FAUX WOOD CERAMIC TILE THROUGHOUT THE SPACIUOS ROOMS. THE KITCHEN HAS PLENTY OF COUNTER SPACE AND WOODEN CABINETRY FOR STORAGE. BRAND NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES TO INCLUDE OVEN AND REFRIGERATOR. NEW LIGHT FIXTURES TO INCLUDE CEILING FANS AND LED RECESSED LIGHTING! NEW AC UNIT! CALL NOW FOR YOUR PRIVATE SHOWING!

8. 2021-08-31
   soldstatus 173-char remark

   Show marketing remark (173 chars)

   HOUSE IN PROGRESS OF BEING BUILT BUILT FROM THE SLAB UP AND WAS STARTED APPROXIMATELY 2015. OUTSIDE WALLS AND ROOF ON. NEEDS COMPLETINGAND BEING SOLD "AS IS". NONE

9. 2021-08-31
   soldstatus $38,700

   Show marketing remark (173 chars)

   HOUSE IN PROGRESS OF BEING BUILT BUILT FROM THE SLAB UP AND WAS STARTED APPROXIMATELY 2015. OUTSIDE WALLS AND ROOF ON. NEEDS COMPLETINGAND BEING SOLD "AS IS". NONE

10. 2021-04-16
    listed $28,000 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    HOUSE IN PROGRESS OF BEING BUILT BUILT FROM THE SLAB UP AND WAS STARTED APPROXIMATELY 2015. OUTSIDE WALLS AND ROOF ON. NEEDS COMPLETINGAND BEING SOLD "AS IS". NONE

11. 2020-02-26
    soldstatus $38,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $947 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $947 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$947
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,103
• − Management: −$1,103
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,712
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$411
• After-tax cash flow: $2,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Natchez

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #15334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natchez, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+155.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $99,000 MLSU
• 2025-12-12 Listed $115,000 MLSU
• 2021-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $38,700 Public Records
• 2021-08-31 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2021-04-16 Listed $28,000 MLSU
• 2020-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $38,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $947 · +22.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.