22 Independence Grn #22

Montpelier, VT 05602

$312,500D-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,024 sqft · Built 1976 · Condo · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,639
• Tax + insurance: −$362
• HOA: −$338
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-127/mo
• Annual: $-1,523/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.74%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $87,500

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $312k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (10.4% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $280k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#3 in VT, #670 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Zoned schools: Union Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #31 of 192 statewide, top 21%, 448 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $222k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.4% in Montpelier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.