147 Ardales Dr

Coupland, TX 78621

$305,270D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,577 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 266 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,191/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,601
• Tax + insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-190/mo
• Annual: $-2,280/yr
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.67%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $85,476

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $305k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (28.2% below list).
• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#869 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Booker T Washington El (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,152 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 750 students, 89% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 820 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.4% in Coupland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?