147 Ardales Dr · Coupland, TX 78621

$305,270

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,577 sqft · Land · 265 Days on market

Built 2025 0.54 ac lot $194/sqft · 23% above area Est $249k · 23% over $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Half acre Lanzola homesite with a brand new furnished mobile home in Elgin, Tx! This lot is ready for move-in! 3bed/2bath home with plenty of yard space for you and your family. Neighborhood has picnic areas and playgrounds for you to enjoy in the community. With newly paved roads, the new neighborhood is only 7 minutes from Elgin downtown - making it convenient to visit local grocery stores, restaurants and cafes.

Key facts

• Playgrounds
• Half acre homesite
• Newly paved roads

Tags

• HALF ACRE HOMESITE
• FURNISHED MOBILE HOME
• YARD SPACE
• PICNIC AREAS
• PLAYGROUNDS
• NEWLY PAVED ROADS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.4% in Coupland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#869 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Booker T Washington El (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,152 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 750 students, 89% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $219,098 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.67%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,000
• List price: $305,270
• Delta: 22.60%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $154,340
• Equity at exit: $275,011

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.43×
• Total profit: $464,396
• Equity at exit: $593,072

Cash invested: $85,476 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,191 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,601
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,594/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,431

Max offer price $271,708

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-17	-5% $-104	+0% $-190	+5% $-276	+10% $-363
Rent	-10% $-363	-5% $-277	+0% $-190	+5% $-103	+10% $-17
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-112	base $-190	+0.5pp $-269	+1.0pp $-350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,318
• Closing costs: $9,158
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $305,270 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $305,270 Active 262 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $305,270 Active 261 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,270 Active 260 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $305,270 Active 259 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,270 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $305,270 Active 253 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $305,270 Active 252 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $305,270 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $305,270 Active 248 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $305,270 Active 247 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $305,270 Active 246 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $305,270 Active 245 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $305,270 Active 244 DOM
15. 2025-09-29
    listed $305,270 Active 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Half acre Lanzola homesite with a brand new furnished mobile home in Elgin, Tx! This lot is ready for move-in! 3bed/2bath home with plenty of yard space for you and your family. Neighborhood has picnic areas and playgrounds for you to enjoy in the community. With newly paved roads, the new neighborhood is only 7 minutes from Elgin downtown - making it convenient to visit local grocery stores, restaurants and cafes.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,594 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,586 · $466/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,993/yr (+$333/mo · 250.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,100
• − Property taxes: −$1,594
• − Insurance: −$1,526
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,103
• − Management: −$2,103
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$8,881
• Taxable loss: −$7,735
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,856
• After-tax cash flow: $-423/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Coupland

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #869
• US rank: #15682

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 1,540
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-29 Listed $305,270 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

-32.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,594 · -32.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.