9570 Tokay Rd

Grape Creek, TX 76901

$200,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,646/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$291
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-39/mo
• Annual: $-469/yr
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.84%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-469/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (17.7% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $165k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#545 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grape Creek ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #675 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Grape Creek Pri (316 students, 74% FRL); Grape Creek Middle (math 18% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,360 of 1,662 statewide, top 83%, 270 students, 60% FRL); Grape Creek H S (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 308 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.6% in Grape Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.