9570 Tokay Rd · Grape Creek, TX 76901

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1976 0.52 ac lot Est $219k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-maintained property offering easy access, plenty of space, and a location that's hard to beat being just a short walk from the elementary school. Situated on a generous half-acre lot, you'll have room to spread out, entertain guests, and enjoy the outdoors. Multiple exterior sheds provide excellent storage and flexibility for RV parking, a workshop, lawn equipment, hobbies, and more. Take a look through the photos to appreciate the spacious layout, then schedule your private showing to experience everything this property has to offer in person

Key facts

• Half-acre lot
• Rv parking
• Workshop

Tags

• HALF-ACRE LOT
• MULTIPLE EXTERIOR SHEDS
• EXCELLENT STORAGE
• RV PARKING
• WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Carport (1 space); Additional parking; RV carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Well water; Other water source; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition/shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as residential single family
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Corner lot; Paved, public maintained county road frontage; Outbuilding(s), shed(s) and workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-469/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.6% in Grape Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#545 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grape Creek ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #675 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Grape Creek Pri (316 students, 74% FRL); Grape Creek Middle (math 18% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,360 of 1,662 statewide, top 83%, 270 students, 60% FRL); Grape Creek H S (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 308 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,623 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.84%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,024
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7686 Chaparral Run Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+3%)	4mo	$225,000	$162	75
8002 W Concord Loop St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-5%)	15mo	$184,500	$143	70
9991 N Grape Creek Rd	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,263 (-7%)	3mo	$159,900	$127	63
10094 Cottontail Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,495 (+11%)	1mo	$245,500	$164	52
8850 Blue Quail Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+9%)	18mo	$250,000	$169	36
9942 Mt Nebo Rd	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,508 (+12%)	24mo	$225,000	$149	34
7229 Sun Ln	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,196 (-12%)	9mo	$205,000	$171	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $111,167
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.07×
• Total profit: $340,069
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76901

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,646 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,489/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,696

Max offer price $193,095

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 570-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,171/yr (+$98/mo · 47.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,755
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,489
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,580
• − Management: −$1,580
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,917
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$940
• After-tax cash flow: $471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grape Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821600
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,891
• Composite: 23.6/100
• National rank: #7849
• State rank: #675 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grape Creek

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #545
• US rank: #10581

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grape Creek, TX
• County: Tom Green County · 113,188 people
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,831
• Household income: $69,450
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Tom Green County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,110 people
• By 2030: 144,090 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 162,561 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 182,158 · +34.8%
• By 2075: 232,274 · +71.9%
• By 2100: 268,218 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 17% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tom Green

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 25.5% · R 73.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -41.7pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+47.9 2008: R+41.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.96%
• Current HPI: 798.58
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $200,000 SAAR TX

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,489 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.