229 Black Horse Dr

Strasburg, PA 17579

$219,900D-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1986 · Townhouse · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,496/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$381
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-352/mo
• Annual: $-4,223/yr
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.86%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-352 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (32.0% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $150k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#289 in PA, #2,536 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lampeter-Strasburg SD (suburban): math 51% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #68 of 539 in PA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hans Herr El Sch (math 57% / reading 73%, grade B+, #246 of 1,518 statewide, top 16%, 655 students, 27% FRL); Martin Meylin Ms (math 38% / reading 67%, grade C+, #100 of 512 statewide, top 20%, 639 students, 25% FRL); Lampeter-Strasburg Shs (math 73% / reading 15%, grade F, #209 of 437 statewide, top 48%, 940 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 1.4% in Strasburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.