229 Black Horse Dr · Strasburg, PA 17579

$219,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,080 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1986 7,405 sqft lot $204/sqft · 13% below area Est $281k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to opportunity! This fantastic semi detached home offers you the perfect opportunity to bring your own style to this fixer upper! The classic floor plan offers just the right amount of space for any lifestyle, with plenty of storage and natural light. Outdoors the deck offers green views, and the location on a quiet street is just a short walk from parks, playgrounds, the Strasburg Library and all Main Street Strasburg has to offer! Come out and visit this home in person to see the potential for yourself

Key facts

• Plenty of storage
• Classic floor plan
• Semi detached home

Tags

• SEMI DETACHED HOME
• FIXER UPPER
• CLASSIC FLOOR PLAN
• PLENTY OF STORAGE
• NATURAL LIGHT
• OUTDOOR DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two off-street parking spaces; On-street parking available; Total of 2 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric available; Cable TV available; Cable, broadband, and DSL internet; Phone available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Semi-detached; East-facing main entrance
• Construction: Frame construction with metal siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Shed; Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven/range
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first upper level; One bedroom on the second upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Full basement, partially finished; Not furnished; Living Room, Dining Room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-352 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 1.4% in Strasburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#289 in PA, #2,536 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lampeter-Strasburg SD (suburban): math 51% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #68 of 539 in PA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hans Herr El Sch (math 57% / reading 73%, grade B+, #246 of 1,518 statewide, top 16%, 655 students, 27% FRL); Martin Meylin Ms (math 38% / reading 67%, grade C+, #100 of 512 statewide, top 20%, 639 students, 25% FRL); Lampeter-Strasburg Shs (math 73% / reading 15%, grade F, #209 of 437 statewide, top 48%, 940 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,617 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.86%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,000
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -21.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
241 Cross Keys Dr	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (0%)	11mo	$255,000	$236	81
135 Robert Evans Way	0.17mi	2/1.5	1,050 (-3%)	14mo	$245,000	$233	76
1107 Hampden Dr	0.32mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (+11%)	1mo	$281,000	$234	61
1111 Hampden Dr	0.31mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,210 (+12%)	4mo	$315,000	$260	57
1123 Hampden Dr	0.28mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,218 (+13%)	9mo	$320,000	$263	53
1112 Hampden Dr	0.29mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (+11%)	21mo	$256,000	$213	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-58,017
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-79,256
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17579

• Home prices YoY: -31.3%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,496 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$289 /mo · $3,469/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,942

Max offer price $157,729

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-227	-5% $-290	+0% $-352	+5% $-414	+10% $-476
Rent	-10% $-470	-5% $-411	+0% $-352	+5% $-293	+10% $-234
Rate	-1.0pp $-241	-0.5pp $-296	base $-352	+0.5pp $-409	+1.0pp $-467

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
223 Cross Keys Dr Strasburg, PA	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,395	$1.29	15d	1	0.08mi
1111 Hampden Dr Strasburg, PA	3.0	1.5	1210	$1,895	$1.57	46d	1	0.33mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 524-char remark
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $219,900 Active 524-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,469 · $289/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,472 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: +$3/yr ($0/mo · 0.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,954
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,469
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,436
• − Management: −$1,436
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$8,202
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,969
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lampeter-Strasburg SD
• NCES district ID: 4213110
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $66,661
• Composite: 52.19/100
• National rank: #1610
• State rank: #68 of 539 in PA

Livability — Strasburg

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #2536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Strasburg, PA
• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 6,875
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 6,875
• Household income: $91,621
• Rent vs Own: 24.4% rent · 75.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 123.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · German/W. Germanic 17% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.50%
• Current HPI: 270.6787
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $219,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,469 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.