454 Forest Rd

Minorca, LA 71373

$119,000C

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,600 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $143/mo
• Annual: $1,714/yr
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.14%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#221 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Concordia Parish (town): math 19% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #65 of 98 in LA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Concordia Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Concordia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (7.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 95% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.