454 Forest Rd · Minorca, LA 71373

$119,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Built 1985 3.12 ac lot $46/sqft · 58% below area ↓ 52% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing home with a lot of potential, situated on 3.12 acres just outside Vidalia. Swimming pool, master suite downstairs, dining room. fireplace. Needs work, selling as is.

Key facts

• 3.12 acres
• Swimming pool
• Dining room

Tags

• 3.12 ACRES
• SWIMMING POOL
• MASTER SUITE DOWNSTAIRS
• DINING ROOM
• FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#221 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Concordia Parish (town): math 19% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #65 of 98 in LA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Concordia Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Concordia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 95% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.14%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,252
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -57.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $50,509
• Equity at exit: $82,254

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.21×
• Total profit: $140,136
• Equity at exit: $156,056

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71373

• Home prices YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,479/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,114

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $210	-5% $177	+0% $143	+5% $109	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $41	-5% $92	+0% $143	+5% $194	+10% $245
Rate	-1.0pp $203	-0.5pp $173	base $143	+0.5pp $112	+1.0pp $81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 173-char remark

   Show marketing remark (173 chars)

   Amazing home with a lot of potential, situated on 3.12 acres just outside Vidalia. Swimming pool, master suite downstairs, dining room. fireplace. Needs work, selling as is.

2. 2026-04-24
   price $119,000 173-char remark

   Show marketing remark (173 chars)

   Amazing home with a lot of potential, situated on 3.12 acres just outside Vidalia. Swimming pool, master suite downstairs, dining room. fireplace. Needs work, selling as is.

3. 2026-04-24
   status Active 173-char remark

   Show marketing remark (173 chars)

   Amazing home with a lot of potential, situated on 3.12 acres just outside Vidalia. Swimming pool, master suite downstairs, dining room. fireplace. Needs work, selling as is.

4. 2026-04-20
   historical 173-char remark

   Show marketing remark (173 chars)

   Amazing home with a lot of potential, situated on 3.12 acres just outside Vidalia. Swimming pool, master suite downstairs, dining room. fireplace. Needs work, selling as is.

5. 2026-04-08
   price $129,000 173-char remark

   Show marketing remark (173 chars)

   Amazing home with a lot of potential, situated on 3.12 acres just outside Vidalia. Swimming pool, master suite downstairs, dining room. fireplace. Needs work, selling as is.

6. 2026-03-30
   price $139,000 173-char remark

   Show marketing remark (173 chars)

   Amazing home with a lot of potential, situated on 3.12 acres just outside Vidalia. Swimming pool, master suite downstairs, dining room. fireplace. Needs work, selling as is.

7. 2026-03-26
   price $144,000 173-char remark

   Show marketing remark (173 chars)

   Amazing home with a lot of potential, situated on 3.12 acres just outside Vidalia. Swimming pool, master suite downstairs, dining room. fireplace. Needs work, selling as is.

8. 2026-03-17
   price $149,000 173-char remark

   Show marketing remark (173 chars)

   Amazing home with a lot of potential, situated on 3.12 acres just outside Vidalia. Swimming pool, master suite downstairs, dining room. fireplace. Needs work, selling as is.

9. 2026-03-10
   price $154,000 173-char remark

   Show marketing remark (173 chars)

   Amazing home with a lot of potential, situated on 3.12 acres just outside Vidalia. Swimming pool, master suite downstairs, dining room. fireplace. Needs work, selling as is.

10. 2026-03-03
    price $159,000 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    Amazing home with a lot of potential, situated on 3.12 acres just outside Vidalia. Swimming pool, master suite downstairs, dining room. fireplace. Needs work, selling as is.

11. 2026-02-25
    price $169,000 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    Amazing home with a lot of potential, situated on 3.12 acres just outside Vidalia. Swimming pool, master suite downstairs, dining room. fireplace. Needs work, selling as is.

12. 2026-02-16
    price $179,000 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    Amazing home with a lot of potential, situated on 3.12 acres just outside Vidalia. Swimming pool, master suite downstairs, dining room. fireplace. Needs work, selling as is.

13. 2026-02-07
    listed $189,000 Active 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    Amazing home with a lot of potential, situated on 3.12 acres just outside Vidalia. Swimming pool, master suite downstairs, dining room. fireplace. Needs work, selling as is.

14. 2018-07-17
    soldstatus $230,000
15. 2018-07-13
    soldstatus 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Situated on 3.12 acres just outside Vidalia. Built in 1985, this one & a half story brick home has 3 spacious bedrooms & 2 & 1/2 baths. Master suite downstairs. Walk in closets. Family room with fireplace. Dining room. Covered porch on the front of the house and a screened porch on the back. Plus there is another large screened porch on the back. Plus there is another large screened room with it's own bath that overlooks the swimming pool. Great for entertaining family and friends. Large shop.

16. 2018-04-17
    listed $230,000 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Situated on 3.12 acres just outside Vidalia. Built in 1985, this one & a half story brick home has 3 spacious bedrooms & 2 & 1/2 baths. Master suite downstairs. Walk in closets. Family room with fireplace. Dining room. Covered porch on the front of the house and a screened porch on the back. Plus there is another large screened porch on the back. Plus there is another large screened room with it's own bath that overlooks the swimming pool. Great for entertaining family and friends. Large shop.

17. 2006-09-12
    soldstatus $247,420

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,479 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,479 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 95% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$2,479
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,243
• − Management: −$1,243
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$148
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$36
• After-tax cash flow: $1,749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Concordia Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200480
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -39.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -34.00%
• Median HH income: $29,931
• Composite: 18.45/100
• National rank: #8929
• State rank: #65 of 98 in LA

Livability — Minorca

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #16991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Minorca, LA
• Population (ZIP): 5,754

Population outlook (Concordia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,933 people
• By 2030: 18,157 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 16,559 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 15,067 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 11,770 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 8,541 · -54.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Concordia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.8% · R 64.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.4pp toward R · 2008: -20.0pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+26.9 2016: R+24.8 2012: R+17.2 2008: R+20.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.97%
• Current HPI: 117.3895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-51.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $119,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-04-20 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $129,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $139,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $144,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $149,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $154,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $159,000 MLSU
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $169,000 MLSU
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $179,000 MLSU
• 2026-02-07 Listed $189,000 MLSU
• 2018-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-13 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2018-04-17 Listed $230,000 MLSU
• 2006-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $247,420 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,479 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.