2568 Tall Palm Ave

Lake Wales, FL 33898

$165,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Pending · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,515/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $185/mo
• Annual: $2,218/yr
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.80%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (8.2% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $152k (8.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#535 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hillcrest Elementary School (math 59% / reading 55%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 662 students, 59% FRL, charter); Lake Wales Senior High School (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,586 students, 64% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 500 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $165k implies a 358% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.