2568 Tall Palm Ave · Lake Wales, FL 33898

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Manufactured public records · 83 Days on market

Built 2002 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is not a short sale! Cozy 3 bedroom, 1 bath modular close to SR-60 and shopping. Lots of potential! Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! This property is approved for HomePath Renovation Mortgage. Please contact listing agent for moreinfo. Seller does not pay doc stamps or owners title insurance policy/title fees. Please acknowledge this on offer. Agents please include phone number for quick offer response. All buyers are encouraged to complete any and all inspections they deem necessary to determine the condition of the property. The seller hasn't occupied the property, hasn't completed any inspections, therefore, is exempt from completing seller's disclosure forms. Buyers to verify all information. Fannie Mae is offering 3.5% incentive for buyers who purchase & close on a Fannie Mae owned home by 04/30/2010. Please see your agent for more info. Buyer to verify all information.

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Storage shed
• No hoa

Tags

• FENCED BACK YARD
• STORAGE SHED
• NO HOA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead property; Zoned RES
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Public maintained road access
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Fire hydrant nearby; Water connected
• Home design: Modular home; Residential property; One story; North-facing entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle roof; Stem wall foundation; Built as completed condition
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Shed(s); Trees and landscaped grounds; Paved, asphalt road access; Level lot; In-county location

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room and dining room combo; Vaulted ceilings; Blinds, drapes and rods
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (8.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#535 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hillcrest Elementary School (math 59% / reading 55%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 662 students, 59% FRL, charter); Lake Wales Senior High School (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,586 students, 64% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 500 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $165k implies a 358% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,507 (8.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.80%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-15,021
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,851
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 500
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,515 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $937/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,281

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $278	-5% $232	+0% $185	+5% $138	+10% $91
Rent	-10% $65	-5% $125	+0% $185	+5% $245	+10% $305
Rate	-1.0pp $268	-0.5pp $227	base $185	+0.5pp $142	+1.0pp $99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2538 Elm Ave Unit 2540 Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.0	812	$1,200	$1.48	24d	1	0.16mi
2540 Elm Ave Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.0	812	$1,200	$1.48	24d	1	0.16mi
3031 Azalea Ave Lake Wales, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	19d	1	0.82mi
1438 Thousand Roses Dr S Lake Wales, FL	2.0	2.0	962	$1,150	$1.20	24d	1	0.86mi
102 Laureti Ln Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	24d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $165,000 Pending 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $165,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   status Active
8. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
9. 2026-04-18
   price $165,000
10. 2026-04-08
    price $170,000
11. 2026-03-13
    listed $177,700 Active
12. 2025-08-19
    historical
13. 2025-08-05
    price $177,000
14. 2025-06-20
    listed $187,000 Active
15. 2010-06-29
    soldstatus $36,000 918-char remark

    Show marketing remark (918 chars)

    This is not a short sale! Cozy 3 bedroom, 1 bath modular close to SR-60 and shopping. Lots of potential! Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! This property is approved for HomePath Renovation Mortgage. Please contact listing agent for moreinfo. Seller does not pay doc stamps or owners title insurance policy/title fees. Please acknowledge this on offer. Agents please include phone number for quick offer response. All buyers are encouraged to complete any and all inspections they deem necessary to determine the condition of the property. The seller hasn't occupied the property, hasn't completed any inspections, therefore, is exempt from completing seller's disclosure forms. Buyers to verify all information. Fannie Mae is offering 3.5% incentive for buyers who purchase & close on a Fannie Mae owned home by 04/30/2010. Please see your agent for more info. Buyer to verify all information.

16. 2010-04-23
    listed $36,900 918-char remark

    Show marketing remark (918 chars)

    This is not a short sale! Cozy 3 bedroom, 1 bath modular close to SR-60 and shopping. Lots of potential! Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! This property is approved for HomePath Renovation Mortgage. Please contact listing agent for moreinfo. Seller does not pay doc stamps or owners title insurance policy/title fees. Please acknowledge this on offer. Agents please include phone number for quick offer response. All buyers are encouraged to complete any and all inspections they deem necessary to determine the condition of the property. The seller hasn't occupied the property, hasn't completed any inspections, therefore, is exempt from completing seller's disclosure forms. Buyers to verify all information. Fannie Mae is offering 3.5% incentive for buyers who purchase & close on a Fannie Mae owned home by 04/30/2010. Please see your agent for more info. Buyer to verify all information.

17. 2007-06-07
    historical
18. 2007-01-11
    listed $90,000
19. 2006-12-09
    soldstatus $55,000
20. 2006-12-08
    soldstatus $55,000
21. 2006-07-28
    listed $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $937 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$433/yr (+$36/mo · 46.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$937
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,454
• − Management: −$1,454
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$532
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$128
• After-tax cash flow: $2,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Wales

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 30,351
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $177,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $177,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-20 Listed $187,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-29 Sold (MLS) $36,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-23 Listed $36,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-11 Listed $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-09 Sold (MLS) $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-28 Listed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $937 · +16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.