4433 Heritage Dr

Liverpool, NY 13090

$179,000C-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 976 sqft · Built 1988 · Townhouse · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,935/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$457
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $133/mo
• Annual: $1,598/yr
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.19%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#16 in NY, #363 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Liverpool Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #381 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Long Branch Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 354 students, 54% FRL); Liverpool Middle School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 313 students, 51% FRL); Liverpool High School (math 94% / reading 54%, grade B+, #658 of 1,100 statewide, top 60%, 2,124 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 28% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.0% in Liverpool — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.