133 Redbud Dr

Blue Ridge Shores, VA 23093

$199,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Pending · 182 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,949/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$119
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $161/mo
• Annual: $1,928/yr
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.44%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (2.5% below list).
• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#501 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Louisa County Public School District (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #19 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 408 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Louisa County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.9% in Blue Ridge Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.