133 Redbud Dr · Blue Ridge Shores, VA 23093

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1992 8,764 sqft lot $154/sqft · 32% below area Est $296k · 32% under $119/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 133 Redbud Dr in the beautiful Lake community of Blue Ridge Shores! This 3 bedroom 1 bath home was previously updated and is in good condition. The home sits up on a hill where you can enjoy the view from the full front porch and is just a short walk to the lake. Features include, low maintenance vinyl siding, LVP flooring downstairs, ceiling fans, updated cabinets and long asphalt driveway. Buyer responsible for all HOA transfer fees if applicable. Sale includes lot 698, adjoining. Listing broker & seller assume no responsibility and make no guarantees, warranties or representations as to the availability or accuracy of information herein. All info must be verified by the purchaser.

Key facts

• Lake community
• Updated cabinets
• Full front porch

Tags

• LAKE COMMUNITY
• FULL FRONT PORCH
• LOW MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING
• LVP FLOORING
• UPDATED CABINETS
• LONG ASPHALT DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.9% in Blue Ridge Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#501 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Louisa County Public School District (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #19 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 408 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Louisa County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.44%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,559
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -32.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
133 Redbud Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,296 (0%)	0mo	$172,000	$133	100
264 Dogwood Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+4%)	1mo	$340,000	$253	83
172 Redbud Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-4%)	8mo	$305,000	$246	80
1250 S Lakeshore Dr	0.27mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,281 (-1%)	6mo	$580,000	$453	73
260 Locust Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+8%)	11mo	$349,000	$249	65
127 Ferndale Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,203 (-7%)	6mo	$293,000	$244	60
18 Ellis Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,182 (-9%)	10mo	$260,000	$220	59
1249 Lakeshore Dr N	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-1%)	5mo	$375,000	$293	59
2011 Lakeshore Dr S	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+2%)	8mo	$235,000	$178	56
1615 Lake Shore Dr S	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+11%)	16mo	$365,000	$255	55
277 Nottingham Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-13%)	12mo	$295,000	$262	54
1346 N Lakeshore Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,200 (-7%)	2mo	$310,000	$258	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-22,134
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,987
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23093

• Home prices YoY: -15.0%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,949 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,539/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$119
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,745

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $119 · $1,428/yr
• Likely covers: cable

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 710-char remark

   Show marketing remark (710 chars)

   Welcome to 133 Redbud Dr in the beautiful Lake community of Blue Ridge Shores! This 3 bedroom 1 bath home was previously updated and is in good condition. The home sits up on a hill where you can enjoy the view from the full front porch and is just a short walk to the lake. Features include, low maintenance vinyl siding, LVP flooring downstairs, ceiling fans, updated cabinets and long asphalt driveway. Buyer responsible for all HOA transfer fees if applicable. Sale includes lot 698, adjoining. Listing broker & seller assume no responsibility and make no guarantees, warranties or representations as to the availability or accuracy of information herein. All info must be verified by the purchaser.

2. 2026-04-14
   price $199,900 710-char remark

   Show marketing remark (710 chars)

   Welcome to 133 Redbud Dr in the beautiful Lake community of Blue Ridge Shores! This 3 bedroom 1 bath home was previously updated and is in good condition. The home sits up on a hill where you can enjoy the view from the full front porch and is just a short walk to the lake. Features include, low maintenance vinyl siding, LVP flooring downstairs, ceiling fans, updated cabinets and long asphalt driveway. Buyer responsible for all HOA transfer fees if applicable. Sale includes lot 698, adjoining. Listing broker & seller assume no responsibility and make no guarantees, warranties or representations as to the availability or accuracy of information herein. All info must be verified by the purchaser.

3. 2026-04-06
   status Active 710-char remark

   Show marketing remark (710 chars)

   Welcome to 133 Redbud Dr in the beautiful Lake community of Blue Ridge Shores! This 3 bedroom 1 bath home was previously updated and is in good condition. The home sits up on a hill where you can enjoy the view from the full front porch and is just a short walk to the lake. Features include, low maintenance vinyl siding, LVP flooring downstairs, ceiling fans, updated cabinets and long asphalt driveway. Buyer responsible for all HOA transfer fees if applicable. Sale includes lot 698, adjoining. Listing broker & seller assume no responsibility and make no guarantees, warranties or representations as to the availability or accuracy of information herein. All info must be verified by the purchaser.

4. 2026-02-27
   status Pending 710-char remark

   Show marketing remark (710 chars)

   Welcome to 133 Redbud Dr in the beautiful Lake community of Blue Ridge Shores! This 3 bedroom 1 bath home was previously updated and is in good condition. The home sits up on a hill where you can enjoy the view from the full front porch and is just a short walk to the lake. Features include, low maintenance vinyl siding, LVP flooring downstairs, ceiling fans, updated cabinets and long asphalt driveway. Buyer responsible for all HOA transfer fees if applicable. Sale includes lot 698, adjoining. Listing broker & seller assume no responsibility and make no guarantees, warranties or representations as to the availability or accuracy of information herein. All info must be verified by the purchaser.

5. 2026-02-09
   price $219,900 710-char remark

   Show marketing remark (710 chars)

   Welcome to 133 Redbud Dr in the beautiful Lake community of Blue Ridge Shores! This 3 bedroom 1 bath home was previously updated and is in good condition. The home sits up on a hill where you can enjoy the view from the full front porch and is just a short walk to the lake. Features include, low maintenance vinyl siding, LVP flooring downstairs, ceiling fans, updated cabinets and long asphalt driveway. Buyer responsible for all HOA transfer fees if applicable. Sale includes lot 698, adjoining. Listing broker & seller assume no responsibility and make no guarantees, warranties or representations as to the availability or accuracy of information herein. All info must be verified by the purchaser.

6. 2025-12-30
   price $234,900 710-char remark

   Show marketing remark (710 chars)

   Welcome to 133 Redbud Dr in the beautiful Lake community of Blue Ridge Shores! This 3 bedroom 1 bath home was previously updated and is in good condition. The home sits up on a hill where you can enjoy the view from the full front porch and is just a short walk to the lake. Features include, low maintenance vinyl siding, LVP flooring downstairs, ceiling fans, updated cabinets and long asphalt driveway. Buyer responsible for all HOA transfer fees if applicable. Sale includes lot 698, adjoining. Listing broker & seller assume no responsibility and make no guarantees, warranties or representations as to the availability or accuracy of information herein. All info must be verified by the purchaser.

7. 2025-12-02
   price $249,900 710-char remark

   Show marketing remark (710 chars)

   Welcome to 133 Redbud Dr in the beautiful Lake community of Blue Ridge Shores! This 3 bedroom 1 bath home was previously updated and is in good condition. The home sits up on a hill where you can enjoy the view from the full front porch and is just a short walk to the lake. Features include, low maintenance vinyl siding, LVP flooring downstairs, ceiling fans, updated cabinets and long asphalt driveway. Buyer responsible for all HOA transfer fees if applicable. Sale includes lot 698, adjoining. Listing broker & seller assume no responsibility and make no guarantees, warranties or representations as to the availability or accuracy of information herein. All info must be verified by the purchaser.

8. 2025-10-30
   price $259,900 710-char remark

   Show marketing remark (710 chars)

   Welcome to 133 Redbud Dr in the beautiful Lake community of Blue Ridge Shores! This 3 bedroom 1 bath home was previously updated and is in good condition. The home sits up on a hill where you can enjoy the view from the full front porch and is just a short walk to the lake. Features include, low maintenance vinyl siding, LVP flooring downstairs, ceiling fans, updated cabinets and long asphalt driveway. Buyer responsible for all HOA transfer fees if applicable. Sale includes lot 698, adjoining. Listing broker & seller assume no responsibility and make no guarantees, warranties or representations as to the availability or accuracy of information herein. All info must be verified by the purchaser.

9. 2025-09-29
   listed $274,900 Active 710-char remark

   Show marketing remark (710 chars)

   Welcome to 133 Redbud Dr in the beautiful Lake community of Blue Ridge Shores! This 3 bedroom 1 bath home was previously updated and is in good condition. The home sits up on a hill where you can enjoy the view from the full front porch and is just a short walk to the lake. Features include, low maintenance vinyl siding, LVP flooring downstairs, ceiling fans, updated cabinets and long asphalt driveway. Buyer responsible for all HOA transfer fees if applicable. Sale includes lot 698, adjoining. Listing broker & seller assume no responsibility and make no guarantees, warranties or representations as to the availability or accuracy of information herein. All info must be verified by the purchaser.

10. 2025-09-16
    soldstatus $189,600
11. 2025-04-14
    historical
12. 2025-02-08
    price $269,000
13. 2025-02-08
    price $269,900
14. 2025-01-17
    listed $275,000 Active
15. 2025-01-09
    historical
16. 2021-09-17
    soldstatus $199,000 Closed
17. 2021-07-07
    status Pending
18. 2021-06-25
    listed $199,000 Active
19. 2020-12-30
    soldstatus $145,000
20. 2020-12-08
    historical
21. 2020-08-27
    listed $140,000
22. 2020-06-15
    historical
23. 2020-03-12
    historical
24. 2020-01-22
    listed $158,500
25. 2020-01-07
    listed $155,000
26. 2018-09-24
    soldstatus $130,500
27. 2002-08-17
    listed $84,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,539 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$101/yr (+$8/mo · 6.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,539
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,871
• − Management: −$1,871
• − HOA: −$1,428
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,336
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$321
• After-tax cash flow: $2,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Louisa County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102280
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,036
• Composite: 60.21/100
• National rank: #862
• State rank: #19 of 131 in VA

Livability — Blue Ridge Shores

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #501
• US rank: #22206

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blue Ridge Shores, VA
• Population (ZIP): 14,243

Population outlook (Louisa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,941 people
• By 2030: 37,752 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 38,605 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 38,480 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 38,011 · +2.9%
• By 2100: 34,748 · -5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Louisa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.2) · D 36.5% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.8pp · 2024: -26.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.2 2020: R+22.9 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+13.8 2008: R+7.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.32%
• Current HPI: 217.8884
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+136.6% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $199,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-02-27 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $219,900 CVRMLS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $234,900 CVRMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $249,900 CVRMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $259,900 CVRMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $274,900 CVRMLS
• 2025-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $189,600 Public Records
• 2025-04-14 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-08 Price Changed $269,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-08 Price Changed $269,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-17 Listed $275,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-09 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-09-17 Sold (MLS) $199,000 CVRMLS
• 2021-07-07 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2021-06-25 Listed $199,000 CVRMLS
• 2020-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-08 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2020-08-27 Listed $140,000 CVRMLS
• 2020-06-15 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2020-03-12 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2020-01-22 Listed $158,500 CVRMLS
• 2020-01-07 Listed $155,000 CVRMLS
• 2018-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $130,500 Public Records
• 2002-08-17 Listed $84,500 CAAR

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,539 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.