21615 Carbonari Dr

Tomball, TX 77377

$301,690D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,393 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,582
• Tax + insurance: −$503
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-268/mo
• Annual: $-3,215/yr
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.81%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $84,473

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $302k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-268 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (23.8% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($284k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rosehill El (math 29% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 695 students, 56% FRL); Tomball Int (math 55% / reading 45%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 988 students, 46% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 26% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1061 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.0% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.