21615 Carbonari Dr · Tomball, TX 77377

$301,690

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,393 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $126/sqft · 21% below area Est $383k · 21% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home is host to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout on the first floor, complete with access to a covered patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the lavish owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile game room is located on the second floor near two additional bedrooms.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $302k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.0% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rosehill El (math 29% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 695 students, 56% FRL); Tomball Int (math 55% / reading 45%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 988 students, 46% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 26% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 905 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($284k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,844 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.48%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $383,085
• List price: $301,690
• Delta: -21.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20923 Caserta Glen Ln	1.47mi	4/3.0	2,480 (+4%)	14mo	$449,800	$181	47
22010 Buescher Rd	1.38mi	4/2.5	2,114 (-12%)	0mo	$460,000	$218	43
18002 Sonresa Way	1.48mi	4/2.5	2,470 (+3%)	18mo	$374,970	$152	42
20935 Caserta Glen Ln	1.47mi	4/3.0	2,474 (+3%)	25mo	$499,970	$202	39
2006 Wood Gate Ln	1.28mi	4/2.5	2,444 (+2%)	34mo	$408,890	$167	39
18708 Fern St	1.34mi	4/2.5	2,128 (-11%)	13mo	$660,000	$310	34
20811 Cypress Rosehill Rd	1.37mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,455 (+3%)	29mo	$2,500,000	$1,018	30
15703 Cypress Garden Dr	1.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,656 (+11%)	16mo	$650,000	$245	24
20815 Ellsmere Lake Ln	1.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,866 (-22%)	28mo	$369,460	$198	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-67,042
• Equity at exit: $44,983

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-99,919
• Equity at exit: $26,085

Cash invested: $84,473 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $315,990 ($132/sqft)
• Median days on market: 65 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +21.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77377

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 905
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,418 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,582
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,525/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $-174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,639

Max offer price $276,462

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $34	-5% $-70	+0% $-174	+5% $-279	+10% $-383
Rent	-10% $-365	-5% $-270	+0% $-174	+5% $-79	+10% $17
Rate	-1.0pp $-22	-0.5pp $-98	base $-174	+0.5pp $-253	+1.0pp $-332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,422
• Closing costs: $9,051
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $306,990 398-char remark

   Show marketing remark (398 chars)

   This new two-story home is host to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout on the first floor, complete with access to a covered patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the lavish owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile game room is located on the second floor near two additional bedrooms.

2. 2026-05-08
   price $300,740 398-char remark

   Show marketing remark (398 chars)

   This new two-story home is host to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout on the first floor, complete with access to a covered patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the lavish owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile game room is located on the second floor near two additional bedrooms.

3. 2026-05-05
   price $310,840 398-char remark

   Show marketing remark (398 chars)

   This new two-story home is host to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout on the first floor, complete with access to a covered patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the lavish owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile game room is located on the second floor near two additional bedrooms.

4. 2026-05-01
   price $317,040 398-char remark

   Show marketing remark (398 chars)

   This new two-story home is host to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout on the first floor, complete with access to a covered patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the lavish owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile game room is located on the second floor near two additional bedrooms.

5. 2026-04-28
   price $321,990 398-char remark

   Show marketing remark (398 chars)

   This new two-story home is host to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout on the first floor, complete with access to a covered patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the lavish owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile game room is located on the second floor near two additional bedrooms.

6. 2026-04-22
   price $325,040 398-char remark

   Show marketing remark (398 chars)

   This new two-story home is host to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout on the first floor, complete with access to a covered patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the lavish owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile game room is located on the second floor near two additional bedrooms.

7. 2026-04-17
   price $329,990 398-char remark

   Show marketing remark (398 chars)

   This new two-story home is host to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout on the first floor, complete with access to a covered patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the lavish owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile game room is located on the second floor near two additional bedrooms.

8. 2026-04-10
   price $339,090 398-char remark

   Show marketing remark (398 chars)

   This new two-story home is host to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout on the first floor, complete with access to a covered patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the lavish owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile game room is located on the second floor near two additional bedrooms.

9. 2026-03-24
   price $344,190 398-char remark

   Show marketing remark (398 chars)

   This new two-story home is host to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout on the first floor, complete with access to a covered patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the lavish owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile game room is located on the second floor near two additional bedrooms.

10. 2026-03-13
    price $346,190 398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (398 chars)

    This new two-story home is host to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout on the first floor, complete with access to a covered patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the lavish owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile game room is located on the second floor near two additional bedrooms.

11. 2026-03-04
    listed $359,990 Active 398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (398 chars)

    This new two-story home is host to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout on the first floor, complete with access to a covered patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the lavish owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile game room is located on the second floor near two additional bedrooms.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,021
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,899
• − Property taxes: −$4,525
• − Insurance: −$1,508
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,322
• − Management: −$2,322
• − Depreciation: −$8,776
• Taxable loss: −$7,332
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,760
• After-tax cash flow: $-333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,965–$35,895 screening

This new two-story home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern kitchen, well-maintained bathrooms, and a clean exterior. The home is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. The highest-ROI updates would be to paint the exterior walls and replace the window blinds to enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace the window blinds — Improves the home's aesthetic and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rosehill El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Tomball Int C TX #347/1,662 Nat'l #3,460/14,009 High Tomball H S B+ TX #111/1,632 Nat'l #2,009/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,680
• Household income: $129,327
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
• Current HPI: 235.031
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $306,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $300,740 Zillow
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $310,840 Zillow
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $317,040 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $321,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $325,040 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $329,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $339,090 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $344,190 Zillow
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $346,190 Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Listed $359,990 Zillow