457 Mildred Ave

Cahokia Heights, IL 62206

$43,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,231/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax + insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $577/mo
• Annual: $6,922/yr
• Cap rate: 22.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.49%
• DSCR: 3.56
• 1% rule: 2.86%
• Cash to close: $12,040

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $43k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $577 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $43k).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $42k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $297 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cahokia CUSD 187 (suburban): math 3% / reading 5% proficiency, ranked #864 of 919 in IL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cahokia High School (math 8% / reading 2%, grade F, #614 of 693 statewide, top 95%, 845 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 85% district-wide (85 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 22.4% vs local median 13.3% in Cahokia Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($34k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.