457 Mildred Ave · Cahokia Heights, IL 62206

$43,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1977 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

HUGE INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO OPPORTUNITY! This property is part of a seven-property package deal, or can be purchased individually. 457 Mildred needs work to be brought back to life. Will be a fantastic addition to this or any portfolio. The full package includes this property and: 32 Agnes (vacant), 306 Marion St. (occupied), 311 Green St. (vacant), 217 Julian Ave. (occupied), 19 Leonard (occupied), and 1617 Mullens Ave. (occupied).

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1977
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric: Other
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $43k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $577 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $43k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.4% vs local median 13.6% in Cahokia Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cahokia CUSD 187 (suburban): math 3% / reading 5% proficiency, ranked #864 of 919 in IL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cahokia High School (math 8% / reading 2%, grade F, #614 of 693 statewide, top 95%, 845 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 85% district-wide (85 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($34k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $297 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,710 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.49%
• DSCR: 3.56
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
457 Mildred Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	1mo	$43,000	$51	95
28 Cahokia St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	810 (-4%)	1mo	$105,000	$130	58
1109 Saint Helena Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	825 (-2%)	1mo	$75,000	$91	57
217 Julian Ave	0.56mi	2/1.0	768 (-9%)	1mo	$59,000	$77	54
125 Saint Leo Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+3%)	5mo	$105,000	$122	53
1114 Saint Helena Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	875 (+4%)	1mo	$82,500	$94	52
113 Saint James Ln	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (+6%)	5mo	$105,000	$118	52
502 Saint Thomas Ln	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+3%)	1mo	$79,900	$92	52
141 Saint Thomas Ln	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+3%)	3mo	$105,000	$122	51
1120 Saint Michael Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	825 (-2%)	4mo	$65,000	$79	51
142 Saint Robert Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+3%)	2mo	$105,000	$122	51
802 Saint Thomas Ln	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+3%)	2mo	$105,000	$122	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $29,852
• Equity at exit: $6,411

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.12×
• Total profit: $73,625
• Equity at exit: $3,718

Cash invested: $12,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62206

• Home prices YoY: -20.2%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,231 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,828/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $577

Break-even live

Break-even rent $501

Max offer price $43,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $601	-5% $589	+0% $577	+5% $565	+10% $553
Rent	-10% $480	-5% $528	+0% $577	+5% $625	+10% $674
Rate	-1.0pp $599	-0.5pp $588	base $577	+0.5pp $566	+1.0pp $554

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,750
• Closing costs: $1,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1002 Upper Cahokia Rd East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	720	$860	$1.19	15d	1	0.24mi
115 Jerome Ln Unit 3 Sauget, IL	1.0	1.0	700	$700	$1.00	44d	1	0.35mi
819 Mildred Ave East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,250	$1.34	22d	1	0.49mi
124 Saint James Ln Cahokia Heights, IL	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,350	$1.27	44d	1	0.59mi
111 Saint Thomas Ln East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,350	$1.30	44d	1	0.59mi
818 La Salle Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	1106	$1,300	$1.18	24d	1	0.63mi
1109 Saint Helena Dr Cahokia Heights, IL	3.0	1.0	825	$1,400	$1.70	3d	1	0.63mi
121 Saint Dorothy Dr Cahokia, IL	3.0	1.0	988	$1,500	$1.52	44d	1	0.65mi
850 Saint Bartholomew Dr Cahokia, IL	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,285	$1.22	17d	1	0.69mi
148 Saint James Ln East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,200	$1.39	44d	1	0.70mi
211 Judith Ln East Saint Louis, IL	2.0	1.0	672	$995	$1.48	5d	1	0.71mi
58 David St East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	44d	1	0.74mi
502 Saint Thomas Ln East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	3d	1	0.75mi
500 Saint Thomas Ln East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	864	$950	$1.10	24d	1	0.75mi
811 Saint Thomas Ln East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,295	$1.25	24d	1	0.75mi
142 Saint Barbara Ln East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	2.0	990	$1,300	$1.31	44d	1	0.80mi
101 E 5th St Cahokia, IL	2.0	1.0	770	$900	$1.17	44d	1	0.84mi
1220 Williams St East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	876	$1,500	$1.71	15d	1	0.86mi
526 Saint Leo Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	925	$1,400	$1.51	3d	1	0.92mi
1162 Smith St East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	988	$1,295	$1.31	22d	1	0.95mi
1308 Saint Stephens Dr Cahokia Heights, IL	2.0	1.0	864	$875	$1.01	17d	1	0.99mi
1308 Saint Stephens Dr Cahokia Heights, IL	2.0	1.0	864	$875	$1.01	15d	1	0.99mi
1150 Price St Cahokia, IL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	3d	1	0.99mi
701 Saint Paul Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	44d	1	0.99mi
1405 Williams St Cahokia Heights, IL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	44d	1	1.11mi
1417 Richard Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,400	$1.50	22d	1	1.18mi
1713 Loretta Ave East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	944	$1,095	$1.16	44d	1	1.19mi
1716 # E Unit Loretta Ave unit East St Louis, IL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,000	$1.39	44d	1	1.20mi
1421 Richard Dr East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,100	$1.18	2d	1	1.20mi
1808 Mullens Ave Cahokia Heights, IL	3.0	1.0	992	$1,500	$1.51	3d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $43,000
3. 2026-04-06
   price $45,000
4. 2026-03-26
   listed $50,000 Active
5. 2026-02-25
   status Active
6. 2025-11-17
   price $84,999
7. 2025-10-09
   listed $89,999 Active
8. 2021-07-21
   price $19,900
9. 2015-01-15
   soldstatus $205,000
10. 2013-03-15
    soldstatus
11. 2013-01-19
    listed $40,000
12. 2006-04-24
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,409
• − Property taxes: −$1,828
• − Insurance: −$215
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,182
• − Management: −$1,182
• − Depreciation: −$1,251
• Taxable income: $6,707
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,610
• After-tax cash flow: $5,313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cahokia CUSD 187
• NCES district ID: 1708040
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 5% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $28,028
• Composite: 6.44/100
• National rank: #14827
• State rank: #864 of 919 in IL

Livability — Cahokia Heights

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cahokia Heights, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 19,956
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 12,959
• Household income: $33,838
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 29% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.26%
• Current HPI: 131.5144
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+72.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $43,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $45,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $50,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $84,999 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Listed $89,999 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-21 Price Changed $19,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-15 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-19 Listed $40,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,828 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.