957 Forja Ct

Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$265,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Active · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,702/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-286/mo
• Annual: $-3,434/yr
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.63%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (35.8% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Santa Cruz Elementary District (4459) (rural): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #129 of 501 in AZ (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Little Red Schoolhouse (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #471 of 1,109 statewide, top 44%, 183 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 24% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Cruz Elementary District (4459) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.1% in Rio Rico — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.