957 Forja Ct · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1989 1.03 ac lot Est $272k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3bed/2bath, 1512 sqft block construction home sits on a cul-de-sac, with 1.03 acres of land. House has an open kitchen, dinning, and living room concept. Newer kitchen cabinets with granite counter tops. Both bathrooms were recently updated as well. Roof is approximately 2 yrs old and has a new AC unit. Great views from the back and front yard. AS-IS condition, reflected on price, needs little TLC to be a great home.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Granite countertops

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 covered/carport space
• Security: Closed-circuit cameras
• Utilities: Water provided by a water company; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Wire fencing; Decorative gravel and shrubs; Located on a cul-de-sac; East/West exposure; Elevated lot; Paved road access (county maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric range; Gas range; Microwave
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Wood-burning fireplace in the living room (1 total)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (35.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.1% in Rio Rico — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Santa Cruz Elementary District (4459) (rural): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #129 of 501 in AZ (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Little Red Schoolhouse (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #471 of 1,109 statewide, top 44%, 183 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 24% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Cruz Elementary District (4459) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,154 (35.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.63%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
284 Via Italia	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,485 (-2%)	2mo	$265,000	$178	78
215 Inca Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,583 (+5%)	4mo	$215,000	$136	73
995 Jar Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+1%)	6mo	$281,900	$184	70
171 Via Casa	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-0%)	3mo	$285,000	$189	68
253 Grillo Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,645 (+9%)	10mo	$166,000	$101	59
280 Donna Court Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+5%)	9mo	$275,000	$174	57
903 Paseo Comanche	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-3%)	9mo	$285,000	$195	54
981 Calle Tamaulipas	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-8%)	18mo	$287,000	$206	54
992 Calle Tamaulipas	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+7%)	10mo	$265,000	$164	53
960 Paseo Guebabi	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (+9%)	2mo	$320,000	$194	48
173 Via Casa	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,731 (+14%)	2mo	$275,000	$159	45
174 Via Casa	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-11%)	11mo	$242,500	$180	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $126,000
• Equity at exit: $238,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $385,189
• Equity at exit: $514,837

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,702 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,564/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,064

Max offer price $214,441

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-136	-5% $-211	+0% $-286	+5% $-361	+10% $-436
Rent	-10% $-421	-5% $-353	+0% $-286	+5% $-219	+10% $-152
Rate	-1.0pp $-153	-0.5pp $-219	base $-286	+0.5pp $-355	+1.0pp $-425

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $265,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $265,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $268,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $268,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $268,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $268,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $268,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $268,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $268,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $268,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $268,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $268,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-02
    price $268,000
18. 2026-04-16
    listed $270,000 Active
19. 2025-09-19
    historical
20. 2025-08-05
    price $268,500
21. 2025-07-02
    price $270,000
22. 2025-06-12
    price $272,000
23. 2025-05-19
    price $275,000
24. 2025-04-28
    price $280,000
25. 2025-04-11
    price $285,000
26. 2025-03-22
    listed $295,000 Active
27. 2022-08-05
    soldstatus $215,000 Closed 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    This 3bed/2bath, 1512 sqft block construction home sits on a cul-de-sac, with 1.03 acres of land. House has an open kitchen, dinning, and living room concept. Newer kitchen cabinets with granite counter tops. Both bathrooms were recently updated as well. Roof is approximately 2 yrs old and has a new AC unit. Great views from the back and front yard. AS-IS condition, reflected on price, needs little TLC to be a great home.

28. 2022-08-05
    soldstatus $215,000

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    This 3bed/2bath, 1512 sqft block construction home sits on a cul-de-sac, with 1.03 acres of land. House has an open kitchen, dinning, and living room concept. Newer kitchen cabinets with granite counter tops. Both bathrooms were recently updated as well. Roof is approximately 2 yrs old and has a new AC unit. Great views from the back and front yard. AS-IS condition, reflected on price, needs little TLC to be a great home.

29. 2022-07-21
    status Pending 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    This 3bed/2bath, 1512 sqft block construction home sits on a cul-de-sac, with 1.03 acres of land. House has an open kitchen, dinning, and living room concept. Newer kitchen cabinets with granite counter tops. Both bathrooms were recently updated as well. Roof is approximately 2 yrs old and has a new AC unit. Great views from the back and front yard. AS-IS condition, reflected on price, needs little TLC to be a great home.

30. 2022-06-20
    price $215,000 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    This 3bed/2bath, 1512 sqft block construction home sits on a cul-de-sac, with 1.03 acres of land. House has an open kitchen, dinning, and living room concept. Newer kitchen cabinets with granite counter tops. Both bathrooms were recently updated as well. Roof is approximately 2 yrs old and has a new AC unit. Great views from the back and front yard. AS-IS condition, reflected on price, needs little TLC to be a great home.

31. 2022-06-20
    historical Active Contingent 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    This 3bed/2bath, 1512 sqft block construction home sits on a cul-de-sac, with 1.03 acres of land. House has an open kitchen, dinning, and living room concept. Newer kitchen cabinets with granite counter tops. Both bathrooms were recently updated as well. Roof is approximately 2 yrs old and has a new AC unit. Great views from the back and front yard. AS-IS condition, reflected on price, needs little TLC to be a great home.

32. 2022-06-18
    listed $210,000 Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    This 3bed/2bath, 1512 sqft block construction home sits on a cul-de-sac, with 1.03 acres of land. House has an open kitchen, dinning, and living room concept. Newer kitchen cabinets with granite counter tops. Both bathrooms were recently updated as well. Roof is approximately 2 yrs old and has a new AC unit. Great views from the back and front yard. AS-IS condition, reflected on price, needs little TLC to be a great home.

33. 2009-08-12
    historical
34. 2009-05-19
    listed $74,900
35. 2009-04-22
    listed $74,900
36. 2009-04-07
    historical
37. 2009-04-03
    historical
38. 2009-02-02
    listed $89,900
39. 2008-12-20
    historical
40. 2008-08-27
    listed $77,900
41. 2008-08-27
    listed $99,900
42. 1989-09-14
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,564 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,749 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$185/yr (+$15/mo · 11.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,564
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,633
• − Management: −$1,633
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$8,290
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,990
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Elementary District (4459)
• NCES district ID: 0407500
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $44,772
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6166
• State rank: #129 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+312.3% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $268,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-16 Listed $270,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-19 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $268,500 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $270,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $272,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $275,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $280,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $285,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-03-22 Listed $295,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-05 Sold (MLS) $215,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-07-21 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2022-06-20 Price Changed $215,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-06-20 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-06-18 Listed $210,000 MLSSAZ
• 2009-08-12 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2009-05-19 Listed $74,900 MLSSAZ
• 2009-04-22 Listed $74,900 MLSSAZ
• 2009-04-07 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2009-04-03 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2009-02-02 Listed $89,900 MLSSAZ
• 2008-12-20 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2008-08-27 Listed $99,900 MLSSAZ
• 2008-08-27 Listed $77,900 MLSSAZ
• 1989-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,564 · +31.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.