Gehrig Plan

Copperas Cove, TX 76522

$249,999F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,732 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,825/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,374
• Tax + insurance: −$437
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-369/mo
• Annual: $-4,425/yr
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.03%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $73,361

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-369 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (27.0% below list).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#706 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lampasas ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #278 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Taylor Creek El (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,429 of 4,322 statewide, top 57%, 527 students, 54% FRL); Lampasas Middle (math 45% / reading 47%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 800 students, 52% FRL); Lampasas H S (math 36% / reading 55%, grade D-, #634 of 1,632 statewide, top 39%, 1,095 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 965 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 155d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 18 units permitted in Lampasas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lampasas County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.7% in Copperas Cove — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.