2030 Black Canyon Rd #29

Ramona, CA 92065

$175,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,236 sqft · Built 2003 · Manufactured · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,750/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $1,086/mo
• Annual: $13,028/yr
• Cap rate: 14.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.21%
• DSCR: 2.26
• 1% rule: 1.57%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#374 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A, commute B+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Ramona City Unified (town): math 32% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #144 of 517 in CA (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 176 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $175k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 2.1% in Ramona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.