2030 Black Canyon Rd #29 · Ramona, CA 92065

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,236 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2003 $142/sqft · 49% below area Est $345k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover one of the best values in Ramona, for those 55+ seeking comfort, simplicity, and a peaceful lifestyle. This rare 3-bedroom end unit is located in a quiet, smaller community with the lowest space rents in the area at $1,135/month. Enjoy beautiful mountain views surrounded by mature oak and pine trees, offering a calm, country-like setting. The home features an open floor plan, a bright and spacious kitchen with ample storage, and a generously sized primary suite. A private laundry room with washer and dryer is included, along with a low-maintenance yard. Conveniently close to town, with covered parking for two vehicles. A unique opportunity to enjoy relaxed living in a serene environment.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Low maintenance yard
• Private laundry room

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• MATURE OAK AND PINE TREES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BRIGHT AND SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PRIVATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $175,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$345,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 2.1% in Ramona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#374 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A, commute B+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Ramona City Unified (town): math 32% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #144 of 517 in CA (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $175k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.21%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $345,000
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -49.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2239 Black Canyon Rd #41	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+15%)	1mo	$345,000	$243	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $37,230
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $107,226
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92065

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $358/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $1,086

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,376

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,185	-5% $1,135	+0% $1,086	+5% $836	+10% $776
Rent	-10% $868	-5% $977	+0% $1,086	+5% $1,194	+10% $1,303
Rate	-1.0pp $1,174	-0.5pp $1,130	base $1,086	+0.5pp $1,040	+1.0pp $994

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    listed $175,000 Active 705-char remark

    Show marketing remark (705 chars)

    Discover one of the best values in Ramona, for those 55+ seeking comfort, simplicity, and a peaceful lifestyle. This rare 3-bedroom end unit is located in a quiet, smaller community with the lowest space rents in the area at $1,135/month. Enjoy beautiful mountain views surrounded by mature oak and pine trees, offering a calm, country-like setting. The home features an open floor plan, a bright and spacious kitchen with ample storage, and a generously sized primary suite. A private laundry room with washer and dryer is included, along with a low-maintenance yard. Conveniently close to town, with covered parking for two vehicles. A unique opportunity to enjoy relaxed living in a serene environment.

16. 2026-03-23
    historical
17. 2026-03-08
    status Active
18. 2026-03-08
    historical
19. 2025-07-28
    price $175,000
20. 2025-07-04
    price $179,900
21. 2025-04-12
    price $185,000
22. 2024-11-15
    listed $187,000 Active
23. 2024-05-30
    historical
24. 2024-04-16
    price $204,900
25. 2024-04-16
    price $207,000
26. 2024-02-02
    price $209,500
27. 2024-01-13
    price $219,000
28. 2023-11-28
    price $225,000
29. 2023-11-10
    listed $235,000 Active
30. 2018-01-16
    soldstatus $87,000 Sold
31. 2018-01-16
    soldstatus $87,000
32. 2017-12-31
    status Pending
33. 2017-12-30
    historical
34. 2017-12-01
    price $87,000
35. 2017-10-07
    price $97,000
36. 2017-07-19
    listed $129,000 Active
37. 2017-07-18
    listed $87,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $358 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,330 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$972/yr (+$81/mo · 271.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$358
• − Insurance: −$1,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,640
• − Management: −$2,640
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $10,797
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,591
• After-tax cash flow: $10,436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ramona City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0631710
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $79,226
• Composite: 43.38/100
• National rank: #3023
• State rank: #144 of 517 in CA

Livability — Ramona

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #374
• US rank: #12777

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ramona, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 36,752
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,752
• Household income: $125,285
• Rent vs Own: 21.6% rent · 78.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 850.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -595.55%
• Current HPI: 301.465
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.71%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+101.1% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $175,000 SDMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-03-08 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2026-03-08 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $175,000 SDMLS
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $179,900 SDMLS
• 2025-04-12 Price Changed $185,000 SDMLS
• 2024-11-15 Listed $187,000 SDMLS
• 2024-05-30 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2024-04-16 Price Changed $204,900 SDMLS
• 2024-04-16 Price Changed $207,000 SDMLS
• 2024-02-02 Price Changed $209,500 SDMLS
• 2024-01-13 Price Changed $219,000 SDMLS
• 2023-11-28 Price Changed $225,000 SDMLS
• 2023-11-10 Listed $235,000 SDMLS
• 2018-01-16 Sold (MLS) $87,000 CRMLS
• 2018-01-16 Sold (MLS) $87,000 SDMLS
• 2017-12-31 Pending — SDMLS
• 2017-12-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2017-12-01 Price Changed $87,000 SDMLS
• 2017-10-07 Price Changed $97,000 SDMLS
• 2017-07-19 Listed $129,000 SDMLS
• 2017-07-18 Listed $87,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2013): $358 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.