922 Stinson Crk

Grayson, KY 41143

$145,000C

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,146/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-26/mo
• Annual: $-311/yr
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-311/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (21.0% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#161 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, employment F.
• Carter County (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #70 of 165 in KY (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prichard Elementary School (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 635 students, 67% FRL); East Carter Middle School (math 21% / reading 41%, grade F, #138 of 217 statewide, top 65%, 505 students, 62% FRL); East Carter County High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 729 students, 57% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.6% in Grayson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.