922 Stinson Crk · Grayson, KY 41143

$145,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2002 3.44 ac lot $94/sqft · 13% below area Est $167k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This home provides privacy on a level lot. With a metal roof, outbuilding, and 3.44 acres, this home is priced to sell. Don't miss out on your new home.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Outbuilding
• 3.44 acres

Tags

• LEVEL LOT
• METAL ROOF
• OUTBUILDING
• 3.44 ACRES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No provided parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; 2 stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Shed(s); Level lot and topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (bedrooms and other rooms included)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-311/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.6% in Grayson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#161 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, employment F.
• Carter County (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #70 of 165 in KY (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prichard Elementary School (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 635 students, 67% FRL); East Carter Middle School (math 21% / reading 41%, grade F, #138 of 217 statewide, top 65%, 505 students, 62% FRL); East Carter County High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 729 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,596 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,681
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -13.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $77,296
• Equity at exit: $130,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.64×
• Total profit: $228,867
• Equity at exit: $281,703

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41143

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,146 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $527/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,179

Max offer price $140,426

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $56	-5% $15	+0% $-26	+5% $-67	+10% $-108
Rent	-10% $-116	-5% $-71	+0% $-26	+5% $19	+10% $65
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $11	base $-26	+0.5pp $-63	+1.0pp $-102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $145,000 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $145,000 Active 152-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $527 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,247 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$720/yr (+$60/mo · 136.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$527
• − Insurance: −$1,522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,100
• − Management: −$1,100
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$2,839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$681
• After-tax cash flow: $371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carter County
• NCES district ID: 2101020
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $34,662
• Composite: 28.82/100
• National rank: #6656
• State rank: #70 of 165 in KY

Livability — Grayson

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #8046

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,754

Population outlook (Carter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,627 people
• By 2030: 24,598 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 22,429 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 20,217 · -21.1%
• By 2075: 15,274 · -40.4%
• By 2100: 10,545 · -58.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.5) · D 20.2% · R 78.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -48.9pp toward R · 2008: -9.5pp · 2024: -58.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.5 2020: R+52.9 2016: R+51.7 2012: R+21.3 2008: R+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.22%
• Current HPI: 230.7934
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — AABOR
• 2026-05-05 Listed $145,000 AABOR

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $527 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.