7 Rocky Top Ridge Rd

Brumley, MO 65017

$139,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,114 sqft · Built 1980 · Other · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $973/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $-69/mo
• Annual: $-832/yr
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.12%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-832/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (30.4% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $97k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#923 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• School Of The Osage (rural): math 39% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #112 of 324 in MO (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Osage Upper Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 437 students, 46% FRL); Osage Middle (math 36% / reading 46%, grade F, #172 of 391 statewide, top 46%, 485 students, 42% FRL); Osage High (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #155 of 521 statewide, top 32%, 666 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Miller County in 2024 (31 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miller County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.