7 Rocky Top Ridge Rd · Brumley, MO 65017

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,114 sqft · Other public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1980 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 7 Rocky Top Ridge Rd in Brumley, MO—a peaceful retreat offering comfort, simplicity, and room to breathe. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a ?????? level 2-acre lot, providing plenty of usable space for outdoor living, gardening, or future improvements. Inside, the home features a practical layout with cozy living areas and natural light throughout. The bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office, while the full bath is conveniently located for easy access. Outside, the expansive, flat acreage is ideal for enjoying the quiet surroundings, adding a shop or outbuilding, or simply relaxing in a private, country setting. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway near the Lake of the Ozarks area, this property delivers space, potential, and a tranquil lifestyle.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Lagoon sewer; 220 Volt electric service; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Back yard; Approximately 2 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Interior features: Forced Air heating; Central Air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-832/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (30.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#923 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• School Of The Osage (rural): math 39% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #112 of 324 in MO (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Osage Upper Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 437 students, 46% FRL); Osage Middle (math 36% / reading 46%, grade F, #172 of 391 statewide, top 46%, 485 students, 42% FRL); Osage High (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #155 of 521 statewide, top 32%, 666 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Miller County in 2024 (31 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Miller County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $97,309 (30.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.12%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $33,132
• Equity at exit: $84,991

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $101,577
• Equity at exit: $151,638

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65017

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $973 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $554/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $-69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,061

Max offer price $127,648

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10	-5% $-30	+0% $-69	+5% $-109	+10% $-149
Rent	-10% $-146	-5% $-108	+0% $-69	+5% $-31	+10% $8
Rate	-1.0pp $1	-0.5pp $-34	base $-69	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending 841-char remark

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   Welcome to 7 Rocky Top Ridge Rd in Brumley, MO—a peaceful retreat offering comfort, simplicity, and room to breathe. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a ?????? level 2-acre lot, providing plenty of usable space for outdoor living, gardening, or future improvements. Inside, the home features a practical layout with cozy living areas and natural light throughout. The bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office, while the full bath is conveniently located for easy access. Outside, the expansive, flat acreage is ideal for enjoying the quiet surroundings, adding a shop or outbuilding, or simply relaxing in a private, country setting. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway near the Lake of the Ozarks area, this property delivers space, potential, and a tranquil lifestyle.

2. 2026-04-30
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   Welcome to 7 Rocky Top Ridge Rd in Brumley, MO—a peaceful retreat offering comfort, simplicity, and room to breathe. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a ?????? level 2-acre lot, providing plenty of usable space for outdoor living, gardening, or future improvements. Inside, the home features a practical layout with cozy living areas and natural light throughout. The bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office, while the full bath is conveniently located for easy access. Outside, the expansive, flat acreage is ideal for enjoying the quiet surroundings, adding a shop or outbuilding, or simply relaxing in a private, country setting. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway near the Lake of the Ozarks area, this property delivers space, potential, and a tranquil lifestyle.

3. 2026-04-23
   listed $139,900 Active 841-char remark

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   Welcome to 7 Rocky Top Ridge Rd in Brumley, MO—a peaceful retreat offering comfort, simplicity, and room to breathe. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a ?????? level 2-acre lot, providing plenty of usable space for outdoor living, gardening, or future improvements. Inside, the home features a practical layout with cozy living areas and natural light throughout. The bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office, while the full bath is conveniently located for easy access. Outside, the expansive, flat acreage is ideal for enjoying the quiet surroundings, adding a shop or outbuilding, or simply relaxing in a private, country setting. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway near the Lake of the Ozarks area, this property delivers space, potential, and a tranquil lifestyle.

4. 2026-04-23
   listed $139,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   Welcome to 7 Rocky Top Ridge Rd in Brumley, MO—a peaceful retreat offering comfort, simplicity, and room to breathe. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a ?????? level 2-acre lot, providing plenty of usable space for outdoor living, gardening, or future improvements. Inside, the home features a practical layout with cozy living areas and natural light throughout. The bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office, while the full bath is conveniently located for easy access. Outside, the expansive, flat acreage is ideal for enjoying the quiet surroundings, adding a shop or outbuilding, or simply relaxing in a private, country setting. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway near the Lake of the Ozarks area, this property delivers space, potential, and a tranquil lifestyle.

5. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
6. 2026-03-02
   price $150,000
7. 2026-03-02
   price $150,000
8. 2026-02-24
   price $170,000
9. 2026-02-24
   price $170,000
10. 2026-01-26
    listed $185,000 Active
11. 2023-05-26
    soldstatus
12. 2023-05-24
    soldstatus Closed
13. 2023-03-31
    historical Active Under Contract
14. 2023-03-09
    status Active
15. 2023-02-28
    historical Active Under Contract
16. 2023-02-25
    listed $179,900 Active
17. 2021-10-26
    soldstatus
18. 2021-10-26
    soldstatus
19. 2021-08-11
    listed $150,000
20. 2008-02-01
    soldstatus
21. 2008-01-03
    listed $42,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $554 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$803/yr (+$67/mo · 145.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$554
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$934
• − Management: −$934
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$3,351
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$804
• After-tax cash flow: $-28/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: School Of The Osage
• NCES district ID: 2927630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,443
• Composite: 36.52/100
• National rank: #4644
• State rank: #112 of 324 in MO

Livability — Brumley

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #25866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,165

Population outlook (Miller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,396 people
• By 2030: 25,344 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 24,740 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 23,415 · -7.8%
• By 2075: 19,426 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 13,742 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Miller

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.3) · D 15.9% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.5pp toward R · 2008: -36.8pp · 2024: -67.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.3 2020: R+65.7 2016: R+66.0 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+36.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.66%
• Current HPI: 181.1553
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+226.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — LOBR
• 2026-04-30 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $139,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $139,900 LOBR
• 2026-03-11 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $150,000 LOBR
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $150,000 SOMO
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $170,000 LOBR
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $170,000 SOMO
• 2026-01-26 Listed $185,000 SOMO
• 2023-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-24 Sold (MLS) — LOBR
• 2023-03-31 Contingent — LOBR
• 2023-03-09 Relisted — LOBR
• 2023-02-28 Contingent — LOBR
• 2023-02-25 Listed $179,900 LOBR
• 2021-10-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-26 Sold (MLS) — LOBR
• 2021-08-11 Listed $150,000 LOBR
• 2008-02-01 Sold (MLS) — LOBR
• 2008-01-03 Listed $42,900 LOBR

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $554 · +13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.