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Squaw Valley, CA 93675

$140,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $809/mo
• Annual: $9,706/yr
• Cap rate: 13.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.79%
• DSCR: 2.19
• 1% rule: 1.57%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $809 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#583 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Kings Canyon Joint Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #288 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $140k implies a 496% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 3.7% in Squaw Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.