122 Twinshaven Rd

Grahamsville, NY 12458

$329,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Active · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,582/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax + insurance: −$395
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-870/mo
• Annual: $-10,444/yr
• Cap rate: 3.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.34%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $92,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $329k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-870 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (46.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (51.9% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (51.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Tri-Valley Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #488 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 1.7% in Grahamsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.