122 Twinshaven Rd · Grahamsville, NY 12458

$329,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1963 2.21 ac lot $222/sqft · 41% below area Est $556k · 41% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Scenic Serenity & Outdoor Adventure at 122 Twinshaven Rd Discover the perfect blend of affordability and charm in this 4-bedroom, 1-bath ranch, ideally situated on 2.21 private acres in the desirable Town of Neversink. Whether you’re seeking a peaceful primary residence or a weekend escape, this move-in-ready home offers the best of Sullivan County living just 2 hours from NYC. The Home & Property Nestled at the end of a quiet dead-end road, this well-maintained residence provides the ultimate in privacy and tranquility. Move-In Condition: Meticulously cared for and ready for you to make it your own. Original Hardwood Floors throughout and a beautiful brick fireplace for those cold nights! Bright Shiplap pine planks throughout the home for that country cabin feel! Spacious Acreage: 2.21 acres of usable land with stunning mountain views that change with the seasons. Low Taxes: Located within the Town of Neversink, known for its exceptionally low property taxes. Education: Situated within the respected Tri-Valley School District. An Outdoor Enthusiast's Paradise Location is everything, and 122 Twinshaven Rd puts you at the doorstep of New York’s finest natural resources: Fishing: Moments away from the Rondout and Neversink Reservoirs, world-renowned for their amazing fishing and crystal-clear waters. Hiking & Hunting: Bordering or nearby thousands of acres of DEP State and City-protected lands, offering endless trails and prime hunting grounds. Privacy: Enjoy the peace of the Catskills while being part of a community that values its natural landscape. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a charming home with acreage and views at an affordable price point. Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Private acres
• Shiplap pine planks
• Brick fireplace

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• QUIET DEAD-END ROAD
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• SHIPLAP PINE PLANKS
• USABLE LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-870 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (46.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (51.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (51.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 1.7% in Grahamsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Tri-Valley Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #488 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $158,181 (51.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.34%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 17.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $556,355
• List price: $329,000
• Delta: -40.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Schoolhouse Rd	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,512 (+2%)	4mo	$395,000	$261	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $123,679
• Equity at exit: $296,389

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.43×
• Total profit: $407,665
• Equity at exit: $639,175

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12458

• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 17.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,582 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,091/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-870

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,684

Max offer price $175,250

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $329,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $329,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $329,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $329,000 1747-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1747 chars)

    Scenic Serenity & Outdoor Adventure at 122 Twinshaven Rd Discover the perfect blend of affordability and charm in this 4-bedroom, 1-bath ranch, ideally situated on 2.21 private acres in the desirable Town of Neversink. Whether you’re seeking a peaceful primary residence or a weekend escape, this move-in-ready home offers the best of Sullivan County living just 2 hours from NYC. The Home & Property Nestled at the end of a quiet dead-end road, this well-maintained residence provides the ultimate in privacy and tranquility. Move-In Condition: Meticulously cared for and ready for you to make it your own. Original Hardwood Floors throughout and a beautiful brick fireplace for those cold nights! Bright Shiplap pine planks throughout the home for that country cabin feel! Spacious Acreage: 2.21 acres of usable land with stunning mountain views that change with the seasons. Low Taxes: Located within the Town of Neversink, known for its exceptionally low property taxes. Education: Situated within the respected Tri-Valley School District. An Outdoor Enthusiast's Paradise Location is everything, and 122 Twinshaven Rd puts you at the doorstep of New York’s finest natural resources: Fishing: Moments away from the Rondout and Neversink Reservoirs, world-renowned for their amazing fishing and crystal-clear waters. Hiking & Hunting: Bordering or nearby thousands of acres of DEP State and City-protected lands, offering endless trails and prime hunting grounds. Privacy: Enjoy the peace of the Catskills while being part of a community that values its natural landscape. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a charming home with acreage and views at an affordable price point. Schedule your tour today!

16. 2026-04-15
    listed $349,000 Active 1747-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1747 chars)

    Scenic Serenity & Outdoor Adventure at 122 Twinshaven Rd Discover the perfect blend of affordability and charm in this 4-bedroom, 1-bath ranch, ideally situated on 2.21 private acres in the desirable Town of Neversink. Whether you’re seeking a peaceful primary residence or a weekend escape, this move-in-ready home offers the best of Sullivan County living just 2 hours from NYC. The Home & Property Nestled at the end of a quiet dead-end road, this well-maintained residence provides the ultimate in privacy and tranquility. Move-In Condition: Meticulously cared for and ready for you to make it your own. Original Hardwood Floors throughout and a beautiful brick fireplace for those cold nights! Bright Shiplap pine planks throughout the home for that country cabin feel! Spacious Acreage: 2.21 acres of usable land with stunning mountain views that change with the seasons. Low Taxes: Located within the Town of Neversink, known for its exceptionally low property taxes. Education: Situated within the respected Tri-Valley School District. An Outdoor Enthusiast's Paradise Location is everything, and 122 Twinshaven Rd puts you at the doorstep of New York’s finest natural resources: Fishing: Moments away from the Rondout and Neversink Reservoirs, world-renowned for their amazing fishing and crystal-clear waters. Hiking & Hunting: Bordering or nearby thousands of acres of DEP State and City-protected lands, offering endless trails and prime hunting grounds. Privacy: Enjoy the peace of the Catskills while being part of a community that values its natural landscape. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a charming home with acreage and views at an affordable price point. Schedule your tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,091 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,326 · $360/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,235/yr (+$103/mo · 39.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$3,091
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,519
• − Management: −$1,519
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$16,791
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,030
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628890
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,543
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #4662
• State rank: #488 of 590 in NY

Livability — Grahamsville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,195

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 21% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 7%
• Common ancestry: American 7% Russian 4% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 109.69%
• Current HPI: 375.4261
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $329,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $349,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,091 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.