3409 Oregon Dr

Anchorage, AK 99517

$125,000D+

24 bd · 18.0 ba · 4,872 sqft · Built 1963 · MultiFamily · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,683/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,663
• Net cashflow: $9,156/mo
• Annual: $109,869/yr
• Cap rate: 94.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 313.91%
• DSCR: 14.97
• 1% rule: 10.15%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 6 × 4-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($110k/yr) — positive. Per door: $2k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Hood Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #112 of 156 statewide, top 74%, 248 students, 54% FRL); Romig Middle School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #22 of 36 statewide, top 63%, 720 students, 37% FRL); West High School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #39 of 61 statewide, top 65%, 1,763 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 94.2% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $12,683/mo this rent would consume 147% of the median local household income ($104k/yr) (locally 643% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?