3409 Oregon Dr · Anchorage, AK 99517

$125,000

24 bd · 18.0 ba · 4,872 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1963 7,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 6 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

6 plex building with considerable fire damage. Bottom 2 units may only need rehab, but the 2 upper floors may have extensive damage. Great location.

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• 14 parking spots
• Built 1963

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6 × 4-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($110k/yr) — positive. Per door: $2k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 94.2% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Hood Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #112 of 156 statewide, top 74%, 248 students, 54% FRL); Romig Middle School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #22 of 36 statewide, top 63%, 720 students, 37% FRL); West High School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #39 of 61 statewide, top 65%, 1,763 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $12,683/mo this rent would consume 147% of the median local household income ($104k/yr) (locally 643% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 10.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 94.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 313.91%
• DSCR: 14.97
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.20×
• Total profit: $566,909
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 37.03×
• Total profit: $1,261,161
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99517

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,683 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,663
• Net cashflow: $9,156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 23%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,242	-5% $9,199	+0% $9,156	+5% $9,113	+10% $9,069
Rent	-10% $8,154	-5% $8,655	+0% $9,156	+5% $9,657	+10% $10,158
Rate	-1.0pp $9,219	-0.5pp $9,188	base $9,156	+0.5pp $9,123	+1.0pp $9,090

6-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 6× units	4	3	$12,684
Total (6 units)			$12,683

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2025-12-09
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-02
   listed $125,000 Active
3. 2025-10-14
   price $125,000
4. 2025-10-08
   price $140,000
5. 2025-09-20
   price $175,000
6. 2025-08-28
   listed $199,900 Active
7. 2007-01-20
   listed $529,000
8. 2005-06-15
   soldstatus
9. 2005-03-30
   listed $365,000
10. 2004-04-15
    listed $379,000
11. 2002-04-25
    soldstatus
12. 2002-01-24
    listed $325,000
13. 1994-04-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $152,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,176
• − Management: −$12,176
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $114,706
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$27,530
• After-tax cash flow: $82,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 246,594 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 16,486
• Household income: $103,880
• Rent vs Own: 39.9% rent · 60.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 643.0

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Two or more races 10% Asian 9% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4% Pacific Islander 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 2% Slovene 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -193.57%
• Current HPI: 298.4457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-61.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Pending — AKMLS
• 2025-11-02 Listed $125,000 AKMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $125,000 AKMLS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $140,000 AKMLS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $175,000 AKMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $199,900 AKMLS
• 2007-01-20 Listed $529,000 AKMLS
• 2005-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-03-30 Listed $365,000 AKMLS
• 2004-04-15 Listed $379,000 AKMLS
• 2002-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-01-24 Listed $325,000 AKMLS
• 1994-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,556 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.