1103 Scarlet Oak Ave

Toms River, NJ 08755

$349,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,610 sqft · Built 1993 · Condo · Active · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,647/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax + insurance: −$582
• HOA: −$471
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$766
• Net cashflow: $-2/mo
• Annual: $-24/yr
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $97,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $349k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-24/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (0.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $349k).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($328k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $328k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Joseph A. Citta Elementary School (math 13% / reading 38%, grade F, #851 of 1,303 statewide, top 66%, 483 students, 61% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School North (math 18% / reading 49%, grade F, #265 of 431 statewide, top 63%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Toms River High School North (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #210 of 399 statewide, top 53%, 1,931 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 22% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 270 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $140k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $258k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,647/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($88k/yr) (locally 529% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.