1103 Scarlet Oak Ave · Toms River, NJ 08755

$349,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,610 sqft · Condo · 80 Days on market

Built 1993 $471/mo HOA · 13% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very well maintained tri-level townhouse in No. Point Hollow. Direct entry-garage, dual balconies, carpeted and spacious open floor plan. Please note this is the only 3-bedroom unit avail at this time. Close to all major highways and GSP. Show and sell

Key facts

• $471 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1993

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,610 (listing provided)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $471

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath and 1 half bath (1.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($470/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $349k).
• Recommended offer: $328k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Joseph A. Citta Elementary School (math 13% / reading 38%, grade F, #851 of 1,303 statewide, top 66%, 483 students, 61% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School North (math 18% / reading 49%, grade F, #265 of 431 statewide, top 63%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Toms River High School North (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #210 of 399 statewide, top 53%, 1,931 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 22% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,699/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($88k/yr) (locally 529% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($328k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $140k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $258k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $328,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.48%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-53,715
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-42,162
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,699 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$436 /mo · $5,235/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$471
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$777
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,649

Max offer price $349,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $280	-5% $160	+0% $39	+5% $-81	+10% $-202
Rent	-10% $-253	-5% $-107	+0% $39	+5% $185	+10% $331
Rate	-1.0pp $215	-0.5pp $128	base $39	+0.5pp $-51	+1.0pp $-143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2106 Grassy Hollow Dr Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.5	2022	$2,900	$1.43	20d	1	0.27mi
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,500	$2.48	15d	1	0.55mi
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,500	$2.48	0d	1	0.55mi
803 Mississippi St #1503 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.5	1696	$3,150	$1.86	0d	1	1.12mi
2001 Rio Grande Dr #1701 Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.5	1936	$3,200	$1.65	6d	1	1.20mi
100 Jumper Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1642	$5,391	$3.28	0d	23	1.23mi
1923 Whitesville Rd Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1576	$3,750	$2.38	19d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $471 · $5,652/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $349,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 358-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $349,000 Active 71 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$5,235
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,551
• − Management: −$3,551
• − HOA: −$5,652
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$5,051
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,212
• After-tax cash flow: $1,682/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+31.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $349,000 MOMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $359,000 MOMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $379,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $399,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $479,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $489,000 MOMLS
• 2005-11-22 Sold (MLS) $258,000 MOMLS
• 2005-09-19 Listed $265,000 MOMLS