154 Hillside Dr

Troy, TX 76579

$154,999B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,955/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $616/mo
• Annual: $7,387/yr
• Cap rate: 11.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.02%
• DSCR: 1.76
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $616 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#307 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Troy ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #257 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.0% in Troy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.