154 Hillside Dr · Troy, TX 76579

$154,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2000 0.50 ac lot $95/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 2000
• Listed 78 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $616 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.0% in Troy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#307 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Troy ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #257 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,699 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.02%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,783
• List price: $154,999
• Delta: -56.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $14,034
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $62,472
• Equity at exit: $13,401

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76579

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,955 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $622/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $616

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,176

Max offer price $154,999

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $703	-5% $659	+0% $616	+5% $572	+10% $528
Rent	-10% $461	-5% $538	+0% $616	+5% $693	+10% $770
Rate	-1.0pp $694	-0.5pp $655	base $616	+0.5pp $575	+1.0pp $535

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $154,999 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,999 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,999 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,999 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,999 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,999 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,999 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,999 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,999 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $159,999 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $163,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $163,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $163,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $163,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $163,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $163,000 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-04-02
    listed $163,000 Active
18. 2001-03-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $622 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,215/yr (+$185/mo · 356.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$622
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,877
• − Management: −$1,877
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $5,123
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,230
• After-tax cash flow: $6,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Troy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843260
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,586
• Composite: 38.83/100
• National rank: #4110
• State rank: #257 of 826 in TX

Livability — Troy

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #6921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 5,448
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,448
• Household income: $85,480
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 210.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.05%
• Current HPI: 183.9791
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $163,000 NTREIS
• 2001-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $622 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.