4918 Ellsworth Dr

Fayetteville, NC 28304

$165,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,368/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$232
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-16/mo
• Annual: $-197/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-197/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (17.1% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $137k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: J W Coon Elementary (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #908 of 1,410 statewide, top 67%, 199 students, 98% FRL); Douglas Byrd Middle (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #422 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 935 students, 100% FRL); Douglas Byrd High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 940 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 55% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $165k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Fayetteville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.