4918 Ellsworth Dr · Fayetteville, NC 28304

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1971 0.30 ac lot Est $167k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fantastic & inviting 3 BR & 2 bath all BRICK ranch in the highly sought after Douglas Byrd school district!! Home features hardwood floors, GRANITE counters, newly built bonus room, and spacious back yard . . . come see!!

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 1971
• Listed 31 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story, site-built house
• Construction: Brick, brick veneer, masonite and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Lot approximately 0.3 acres; Publicly maintained road access; Zoned SF10

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hardwood, laminate, tile and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-197/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Fayetteville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: J W Coon Elementary (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #908 of 1,410 statewide, top 67%, 199 students, 98% FRL); Douglas Byrd Middle (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #422 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 935 students, 100% FRL); Douglas Byrd High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 940 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 55% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $165k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,760 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $166,848
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1011 Juniper Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,011 (-4%)	2mo	$184,999	$183	82
1334 Devonshire Dr	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,067 (+1%)	0mo	$112,000	$105	81
1005 Juniper Dr	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,107 (+5%)	1mo	$169,000	$153	78
1805 Inverness Dr	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,033 (-2%)	3mo	$164,000	$159	70
1104 Odom Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,143 (+8%)	2mo	$170,000	$149	68
4709 Pamlico Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,089 (+3%)	2mo	$216,000	$198	63
4909 Walnut Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,136 (+8%)	1mo	$180,000	$158	61
5219 Redwood Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,124 (+6%)	2mo	$187,000	$166	60
1707 Camelot Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,116 (+6%)	2mo	$204,000	$183	60
819 Sandalwood Dr	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,156 (+10%)	2mo	$176,000	$152	60
821 Sandalwood Dr	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,204 (+14%)	1mo	$140,000	$116	53
5200 Spruce Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,136 (+8%)	3mo	$155,000	$136	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-27,554
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-24,400
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28304

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,368 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,953/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,388

Max offer price $162,100

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $77	-5% $30	+0% $-16	+5% $-63	+10% $-110
Rent	-10% $-124	-5% $-70	+0% $-16	+5% $38	+10% $92
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $26	base $-16	+0.5pp $-59	+1.0pp $-103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
821 Sandalwood Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1204	$1,200	$1.00	15d	1	0.39mi
909 Sandalwood Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1346	$1,595	$1.18	25d	1	0.40mi
4935 Walnut Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,200	$1.17	15d	1	0.47mi
4909 Walnut Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,500	$1.26	25d	1	0.48mi
5632 Birch Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1228	$1,250	$1.02	25d	1	0.58mi
5200 Cypress Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1210	$1,250	$1.03	25d	1	0.63mi
4101 Coventry Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,150	$1.02	15d	1	0.69mi
4810 Alamance Rd Fayetteville, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,200	$1.45	25d	1	0.76mi
910 Miller Ave Unit 910 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	25d	1	0.86mi
1401 Carnsmore Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,575	$1.09	25d	1	0.90mi
4630 Canterbury Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	25d	1	0.93mi
1313 Ireland Dr Unit B Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	900	$1,000	$1.11	25d	1	0.98mi
5842 Aftonshire Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	1010	$1,000	$0.99	25d	1	0.98mi
1309 Ireland Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	900	$1,000	$1.11	15d	1	0.99mi
5864 Aftonshire Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	25d	1	1.03mi
1413 Tangora Ln Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	945	$979	$1.04	15d	1	1.03mi
5876 Aftonshire Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	1024	$1,015	$0.99	25d	1	1.04mi
5744 Aftonshire Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	945	$999	$1.06	25d	1	1.06mi
1406 Tangora Ln Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1192	$1,015	$0.85	25d	1	1.06mi
5713 Aftonshire Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1025	$995	$0.97	15d	1	1.08mi
1216 Weeping Willow Way Unit 229 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	960	$969	$1.01	15d	1	1.11mi
5721 Randleman St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,575	$1.50	25d	1	1.12mi
1805 Wayne Ln Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	975	$2,400	$2.46	25d	1	1.14mi
5744 Randleman St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1171	$1,395	$1.19	25d	1	1.17mi
3526 Furman Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,500	$1.43	25d	1	1.19mi
5032 Shimmer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,700	$1.15	15d	1	1.19mi
5032 Shimmer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,750	$1.19	25d	1	1.19mi
5151 Queensdale Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,295	$1.17	25d	1	1.19mi
5151 Queensdale Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,295	$1.17	15d	1	1.19mi
400 Roxie Ave Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1162	$1,700	$1.46	15d	1	1.24mi
4809 Belford Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1459	$1,300	$0.89	25d	1	1.30mi
1715 Arrow Ridge Way Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,550	$1.27	15d	1	1.38mi
613 Ashbrook Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1103	$1,299	$1.18	25d	1	1.46mi
600 Ashbrook Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0–3.0	1.5	1050	$1,299	$1.24	23d	6	1.48mi
855 King Arthur Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,182	$1.46	15d	9	1.50mi
609 Ashbrook Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	997	$1,049	$1.05	25d	1	1.50mi
4615 Cumberland Rd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	783	$825	$1.05	25d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $165,000 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $165,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-05-05
   listed $165,000 Active
8. 2022-03-23
   soldstatus $85,000
9. 2021-03-11
   soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,953 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,953 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,953
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,036
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$729
• After-tax cash flow: $532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 37,140
• Household income: $58,563
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1667.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% White 36% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.90%
• Current HPI: 215.927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+230.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $165,000 TMLS
• 2022-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,953 · +39.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.